**Strong global population immunity from prior SARS-CoV-2 infections and updated vaccines, alongside WHO’s August 2026 moderate-risk assessment for COVID-19, underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability against a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026.** Official surveillance shows continued low-to-moderate circulation of JN.1-lineage variants such as XFG, with seasonal late-summer increases in cases but sharply reduced hospitalizations and deaths compared with earlier years. No novel coronavirus has demonstrated the combination of sustained human-to-human transmission, immune escape, and severity needed to trigger a WHO pandemic declaration. Trader consensus reflects this epidemiological stability through September 2026. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include the sudden emergence of a highly divergent variant with substantially higher transmissibility or virulence, or an undetected zoonotic spillover event that evades current monitoring.