**Diddy's federal sentence of 50 months, handed down in October 2025 after his conviction on two Mann Act counts for transporting individuals for prostitution, anchors trader expectations that he will remain in custody well into 2028.** Acquitted on the far more serious sex-trafficking and racketeering charges, Combs is serving time at FCI Fort Dix, where good-conduct credits and rehabilitation programming have already shaved his projected release date from an initial June 2028 target down to the February 20, 2028 range. Recent adjustments reflect both program participation and a reported July 2026 inmate altercation that briefly placed him in solitary confinement and nudged the date later. His Second Circuit appeal, which challenges the judge's use of acquitted conduct in sentencing, remains unresolved with no indication of a ruling that could accelerate release into 2026. Ongoing civil suits add reputational and financial pressure but do not alter federal custody status. With roughly 16 months of the term already served by late summer 2026 and no credible pathway to early termination or substantial further reduction before year-end, market-implied odds heavily favor continued incarceration through the remainder of the year.