The ECB's June 11, 2026, policy meeting has priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike with overwhelming trader consensus, driven by the April–May surge in euro-area energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. This shock has elevated near-term inflation risks and prompted Governing Council communications signaling the need to counter potential second-round effects on core prices and wage expectations. With the deposit facility currently at 2.00 percent, markets view the move as a data-responsive tightening to anchor the 2 percent target amid resilient labor conditions. A sharp reversal in energy costs or softer-than-expected May inflation prints could still shift the outcome toward a hold, though such developments appear unlikely given the latest forward-looking guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 98.6%
No change 1.2%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$715,471 Vol.
$715,471 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
99%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 98.6%
No change 1.2%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$715,471 Vol.
$715,471 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
$104,331 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$117,852 Vol.
<1%
No change
$161,780 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
$169,805 Vol.
99%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$161,703 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The ECB's June 11, 2026, policy meeting has priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike with overwhelming trader consensus, driven by the April–May surge in euro-area energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. This shock has elevated near-term inflation risks and prompted Governing Council communications signaling the need to counter potential second-round effects on core prices and wage expectations. With the deposit facility currently at 2.00 percent, markets view the move as a data-responsive tightening to anchor the 2 percent target amid resilient labor conditions. A sharp reversal in energy costs or softer-than-expected May inflation prints could still shift the outcome toward a hold, though such developments appear unlikely given the latest forward-looking guidance.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$715,471終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The ECB's June 11, 2026, policy meeting has priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike with overwhelming trader consensus, driven by the April–May surge in euro-area energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. This shock has elevated near-term inflation risks and prompted Governing Council communications signaling the need to counter potential second-round effects on core prices and wage expectations. With the deposit facility currently at 2.00 percent, markets view the move as a data-responsive tightening to anchor the 2 percent target amid resilient labor conditions. A sharp reversal in energy costs or softer-than-expected May inflation prints could still shift the outcome toward a hold, though such developments appear unlikely given the latest forward-looking guidance.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
音量
$715,471終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The ECB's June 11, 2026, policy meeting has priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike with overwhelming trader consensus, driven by the April–May surge in euro-area energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. This shock has elevated near-term inflation risks and prompted Governing Council communications signaling the need to counter potential second-round effects on core prices and wage expectations. With the deposit facility currently at 2.00 percent, markets view the move as a data-responsive tightening to anchor the 2 percent target amid resilient labor conditions. A sharp reversal in energy costs or softer-than-expected May inflation prints could still shift the outcome toward a hold, though such developments appear unlikely given the latest forward-looking guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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