Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes have sharply elevated eurozone inflation risks, driving near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. April data showed shorter-horizon inflation expectations rising while longer-term measures stayed anchored, with resilient labor markets amplifying concerns over second-round effects and shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening. This aligns with economist surveys assigning roughly 85% probability to the move. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals could still reduce the need for immediate action and alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 98.6%
No change 1.4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$715,475 Vol.
$715,475 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
99%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 98.6%
No change 1.4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$715,475 Vol.
$715,475 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
$104,331 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$118,852 Vol.
<1%
No change
$161,798 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
$169,805 Vol.
99%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$161,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes have sharply elevated eurozone inflation risks, driving near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. April data showed shorter-horizon inflation expectations rising while longer-term measures stayed anchored, with resilient labor markets amplifying concerns over second-round effects and shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening. This aligns with economist surveys assigning roughly 85% probability to the move. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals could still reduce the need for immediate action and alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$715,475終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes have sharply elevated eurozone inflation risks, driving near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. April data showed shorter-horizon inflation expectations rising while longer-term measures stayed anchored, with resilient labor markets amplifying concerns over second-round effects and shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening. This aligns with economist surveys assigning roughly 85% probability to the move. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals could still reduce the need for immediate action and alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
音量
$715,475終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes have sharply elevated eurozone inflation risks, driving near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. April data showed shorter-horizon inflation expectations rising while longer-term measures stayed anchored, with resilient labor markets amplifying concerns over second-round effects and shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening. This aligns with economist surveys assigning roughly 85% probability to the move. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals could still reduce the need for immediate action and alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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