Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp energy price increases, elevating euro-area inflation risks and shifting ECB policy expectations toward tightening. With the deposit facility rate at 2.00% following the April 2026 hold, market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 25 basis point hike at the June 10-11 meeting reflect trader consensus on the need to address second-round effects amid firmer short-term inflation expectations and resilient labor markets. Economist surveys assign roughly 85% probability to the move, consistent with this pricing. Unexpectedly soft May or June inflation data or a swift reversal in energy costs could still support an unchanged outcome despite the current positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 98.6%
No change 1.1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$718,276 Vol.
$718,276 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
99%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 98.6%
No change 1.1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$718,276 Vol.
$718,276 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
$104,331 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$120,452 Vol.
<1%
No change
$161,932 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
$169,843 Vol.
99%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$161,718 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp energy price increases, elevating euro-area inflation risks and shifting ECB policy expectations toward tightening. With the deposit facility rate at 2.00% following the April 2026 hold, market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 25 basis point hike at the June 10-11 meeting reflect trader consensus on the need to address second-round effects amid firmer short-term inflation expectations and resilient labor markets. Economist surveys assign roughly 85% probability to the move, consistent with this pricing. Unexpectedly soft May or June inflation data or a swift reversal in energy costs could still support an unchanged outcome despite the current positioning.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$718,276終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp energy price increases, elevating euro-area inflation risks and shifting ECB policy expectations toward tightening. With the deposit facility rate at 2.00% following the April 2026 hold, market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 25 basis point hike at the June 10-11 meeting reflect trader consensus on the need to address second-round effects amid firmer short-term inflation expectations and resilient labor markets. Economist surveys assign roughly 85% probability to the move, consistent with this pricing. Unexpectedly soft May or June inflation data or a swift reversal in energy costs could still support an unchanged outcome despite the current positioning.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
音量
$718,276終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp energy price increases, elevating euro-area inflation risks and shifting ECB policy expectations toward tightening. With the deposit facility rate at 2.00% following the April 2026 hold, market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 25 basis point hike at the June 10-11 meeting reflect trader consensus on the need to address second-round effects amid firmer short-term inflation expectations and resilient labor markets. Economist surveys assign roughly 85% probability to the move, consistent with this pricing. Unexpectedly soft May or June inflation data or a swift reversal in energy costs could still support an unchanged outcome despite the current positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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