Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pre-trial detention since his March 2025 arrest in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality corruption investigation, facing charges including leading a criminal organization with potential sentences exceeding 2,000 years. The ongoing trial, which began in March 2026 and involves hundreds of defendants, continues without resolution or his release. A separate September 2026 conviction for insulting a public official added a 2-year-1-month prison term and political ban, though appeals remain available and the ruling does not alter his existing custody. These layered proceedings, combined with limited releases among co-defendants and the absence of acquittals or charge dismissals, underpin trader expectations that İmamoğlu will not leave custody before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pre-trial detention since his March 2025 arrest in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality corruption investigation, facing charges including leading a criminal organization with potential sentences exceeding 2,000 years. The ongoing trial, which began in March 2026 and involves hundreds of defendants, continues without resolution or his release. A separate September 2026 conviction for insulting a public official added a 2-year-1-month prison term and political ban, though appeals remain available and the ruling does not alter his existing custody. These layered proceedings, combined with limited releases among co-defendants and the absence of acquittals or charge dismissals, underpin trader expectations that İmamoğlu will not leave custody before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
音量
$6,407終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pre-trial detention since his March 2025 arrest in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality corruption investigation, facing charges including leading a criminal organization with potential sentences exceeding 2,000 years. The ongoing trial, which began in March 2026 and involves hundreds of defendants, continues without resolution or his release. A separate September 2026 conviction for insulting a public official added a 2-year-1-month prison term and political ban, though appeals remain available and the ruling does not alter his existing custody. These layered proceedings, combined with limited releases among co-defendants and the absence of acquittals or charge dismissals, underpin trader expectations that İmamoğlu will not leave custody before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,407終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pre-trial detention since his March 2025 arrest in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality corruption investigation, facing charges including leading a criminal organization with potential sentences exceeding 2,000 years. The ongoing trial, which began in March 2026 and involves hundreds of defendants, continues without resolution or his release. A separate September 2026 conviction for insulting a public official added a 2-year-1-month prison term and political ban, though appeals remain available and the ruling does not alter his existing custody. These layered proceedings, combined with limited releases among co-defendants and the absence of acquittals or charge dismissals, underpin trader expectations that İmamoğlu will not leave custody before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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