Despite an active arrest warrant issued in late 2024 and upheld by Bolivian courts in February 2026 for human trafficking and related charges involving a minor, former President Evo Morales remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, protected by loyal coca growers and MAS party supporters. His reappearance there on February 20 after a seven-week absence dispelled flight rumors, while police stated they would act at the "opportune moment," signaling caution amid political divisions with President Arce. No enforcement actions have followed the tribunal's rejection of his appeal earlier that month, reflecting trader consensus at 82.5% against arrest by May 31 due to risks of unrest in this contested region.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/05/31
新規
新規
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite an active arrest warrant issued in late 2024 and upheld by Bolivian courts in February 2026 for human trafficking and related charges involving a minor, former President Evo Morales remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, protected by loyal coca growers and MAS party supporters. His reappearance there on February 20 after a seven-week absence dispelled flight rumors, while police stated they would act at the "opportune moment," signaling caution amid political divisions with President Arce. No enforcement actions have followed the tribunal's rejection of his appeal earlier that month, reflecting trader consensus at 82.5% against arrest by May 31 due to risks of unrest in this contested region.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
音量
$1終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite an active arrest warrant issued in late 2024 and upheld by Bolivian courts in February 2026 for human trafficking and related charges involving a minor, former President Evo Morales remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, protected by loyal coca growers and MAS party supporters. His reappearance there on February 20 after a seven-week absence dispelled flight rumors, while police stated they would act at the "opportune moment," signaling caution amid political divisions with President Arce. No enforcement actions have followed the tribunal's rejection of his appeal earlier that month, reflecting trader consensus at 82.5% against arrest by May 31 due to risks of unrest in this contested region.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite an active arrest warrant issued in late 2024 and upheld by Bolivian courts in February 2026 for human trafficking and related charges involving a minor, former President Evo Morales remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, protected by loyal coca growers and MAS party supporters. His reappearance there on February 20 after a seven-week absence dispelled flight rumors, while police stated they would act at the "opportune moment," signaling caution amid political divisions with President Arce. No enforcement actions have followed the tribunal's rejection of his appeal earlier that month, reflecting trader consensus at 82.5% against arrest by May 31 due to risks of unrest in this contested region.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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