Traders assign a 97.1% probability to Barack Obama avoiding arrest before 2027 due to the absence of any active federal indictment, arrest warrant, or criminal charges against the former president as of late August 2026. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews of 2016 intelligence assessments have prompted grand-jury activity focused on Obama-era officials, yet these inquiries have not produced filings naming Obama himself, consistent with longstanding norms shielding former presidents from prosecution over official acts. Historical precedent, high evidentiary thresholds, and the lack of credible legal developments reinforce the strong market consensus. Realistic shifts could still arise from newly disclosed evidence in active probes, shifts in prosecutorial priorities, or court rulings clarifying immunity boundaries, though such outcomes remain remote given the current record.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$20,961 Vol.
$20,961 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$20,961 Vol.
$20,961 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.1% probability to Barack Obama avoiding arrest before 2027 due to the absence of any active federal indictment, arrest warrant, or criminal charges against the former president as of late August 2026. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews of 2016 intelligence assessments have prompted grand-jury activity focused on Obama-era officials, yet these inquiries have not produced filings naming Obama himself, consistent with longstanding norms shielding former presidents from prosecution over official acts. Historical precedent, high evidentiary thresholds, and the lack of credible legal developments reinforce the strong market consensus. Realistic shifts could still arise from newly disclosed evidence in active probes, shifts in prosecutorial priorities, or court rulings clarifying immunity boundaries, though such outcomes remain remote given the current record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
音量
$20,961終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.1% probability to Barack Obama avoiding arrest before 2027 due to the absence of any active federal indictment, arrest warrant, or criminal charges against the former president as of late August 2026. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews of 2016 intelligence assessments have prompted grand-jury activity focused on Obama-era officials, yet these inquiries have not produced filings naming Obama himself, consistent with longstanding norms shielding former presidents from prosecution over official acts. Historical precedent, high evidentiary thresholds, and the lack of credible legal developments reinforce the strong market consensus. Realistic shifts could still arise from newly disclosed evidence in active probes, shifts in prosecutorial priorities, or court rulings clarifying immunity boundaries, though such outcomes remain remote given the current record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$20,961終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.1% probability to Barack Obama avoiding arrest before 2027 due to the absence of any active federal indictment, arrest warrant, or criminal charges against the former president as of late August 2026. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews of 2016 intelligence assessments have prompted grand-jury activity focused on Obama-era officials, yet these inquiries have not produced filings naming Obama himself, consistent with longstanding norms shielding former presidents from prosecution over official acts. Historical precedent, high evidentiary thresholds, and the lack of credible legal developments reinforce the strong market consensus. Realistic shifts could still arise from newly disclosed evidence in active probes, shifts in prosecutorial priorities, or court rulings clarifying immunity boundaries, though such outcomes remain remote given the current record.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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