Traders assign only a 2.9% chance of Barack Obama facing arrest before the end of 2026 because no indictment or warrant has been issued despite political referrals from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and public statements from President Trump linking Obama to 2016 Russia investigation claims. The Department of Justice has reviewed related documents without advancing charges, citing insufficient evidence and statutes of limitations on decade-old events. Any prosecution of a former president would face extraordinary legal and institutional hurdles, including Secret Service protections and court scrutiny, with no recent developments converting allegations into executable arrest authority. While ongoing grand jury activity or executive pressure could theoretically produce charges in the final months, the absence of concrete prosecutorial steps sustains the near-certain market pricing for no arrest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$20,961 Vol.
$20,961 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$20,961 Vol.
$20,961 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign only a 2.9% chance of Barack Obama facing arrest before the end of 2026 because no indictment or warrant has been issued despite political referrals from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and public statements from President Trump linking Obama to 2016 Russia investigation claims. The Department of Justice has reviewed related documents without advancing charges, citing insufficient evidence and statutes of limitations on decade-old events. Any prosecution of a former president would face extraordinary legal and institutional hurdles, including Secret Service protections and court scrutiny, with no recent developments converting allegations into executable arrest authority. While ongoing grand jury activity or executive pressure could theoretically produce charges in the final months, the absence of concrete prosecutorial steps sustains the near-certain market pricing for no arrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
音量
$20,961終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign only a 2.9% chance of Barack Obama facing arrest before the end of 2026 because no indictment or warrant has been issued despite political referrals from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and public statements from President Trump linking Obama to 2016 Russia investigation claims. The Department of Justice has reviewed related documents without advancing charges, citing insufficient evidence and statutes of limitations on decade-old events. Any prosecution of a former president would face extraordinary legal and institutional hurdles, including Secret Service protections and court scrutiny, with no recent developments converting allegations into executable arrest authority. While ongoing grand jury activity or executive pressure could theoretically produce charges in the final months, the absence of concrete prosecutorial steps sustains the near-certain market pricing for no arrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$20,961終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign only a 2.9% chance of Barack Obama facing arrest before the end of 2026 because no indictment or warrant has been issued despite political referrals from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and public statements from President Trump linking Obama to 2016 Russia investigation claims. The Department of Justice has reviewed related documents without advancing charges, citing insufficient evidence and statutes of limitations on decade-old events. Any prosecution of a former president would face extraordinary legal and institutional hurdles, including Secret Service protections and court scrutiny, with no recent developments converting allegations into executable arrest authority. While ongoing grand jury activity or executive pressure could theoretically produce charges in the final months, the absence of concrete prosecutorial steps sustains the near-certain market pricing for no arrest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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