Trader sentiment on this multi-outcome market centers on ongoing federal and state investigations into former officials, including intelligence community figures and attorneys general, alongside foreign political cases. John Brennan leads at roughly 50% implied probability amid speculation over past agency conduct reviews, while outcomes like Letitia James and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero trade lower based on procedural timelines. Key drivers include DOJ priorities, congressional oversight, and any indictments filed before year-end 2026. Resolution hinges on verifiable arrests meeting standard legal thresholds, with traders monitoring court filings, confirmation hearings, and executive actions that could accelerate or delay proceedings across jurisdictions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$119,662 Vol.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
34%
John Brennan
30%
James Clapper
24%
Brandon Johnson
27%
Tom Homan
18%
Letitia James
26%
James Comey
17%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Anthony Fauci
8%
Candace Owens
7%
John Kerry
7%
Kash Patel
7%
Lisa Cook
6%
Adam Schiff
6%
Hillary Clinton
6%
Gavin Newsom
5%
Pam Bondi
5%
Bill Clinton
4%
Lee Jun-seok
28%
Joe Biden
4%
Barack Obama
4%
Benjamin Netanyahu
51%
Mahmoud Khalil
54%
Susan Rice
48%
$119,662 Vol.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$7,970 Vol.
34%
John Brennan
$6,677 Vol.
30%
James Clapper
$2,658 Vol.
24%
Brandon Johnson
$1,887 Vol.
27%
Tom Homan
$29,701 Vol.
18%
Letitia James
$1,340 Vol.
26%
James Comey
$9,244 Vol.
17%
Loretta Lynch
$452 Vol.
11%
Anthony Fauci
$8,098 Vol.
8%
Candace Owens
$257 Vol.
7%
John Kerry
$99 Vol.
7%
Kash Patel
$153 Vol.
7%
Lisa Cook
$590 Vol.
6%
Adam Schiff
$6,626 Vol.
6%
Hillary Clinton
$15,653 Vol.
6%
Gavin Newsom
$19,192 Vol.
5%
Pam Bondi
$1,546 Vol.
5%
Bill Clinton
$332 Vol.
4%
Lee Jun-seok
$555 Vol.
28%
Joe Biden
$2,047 Vol.
4%
Barack Obama
$2,857 Vol.
4%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$275 Vol.
51%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,190 Vol.
54%
Susan Rice
$262 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on this multi-outcome market centers on ongoing federal and state investigations into former officials, including intelligence community figures and attorneys general, alongside foreign political cases. John Brennan leads at roughly 50% implied probability amid speculation over past agency conduct reviews, while outcomes like Letitia James and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero trade lower based on procedural timelines. Key drivers include DOJ priorities, congressional oversight, and any indictments filed before year-end 2026. Resolution hinges on verifiable arrests meeting standard legal thresholds, with traders monitoring court filings, confirmation hearings, and executive actions that could accelerate or delay proceedings across jurisdictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
音量
$119,662マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on this multi-outcome market centers on ongoing federal and state investigations into former officials, including intelligence community figures and attorneys general, alongside foreign political cases. John Brennan leads at roughly 50% implied probability amid speculation over past agency conduct reviews, while outcomes like Letitia James and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero trade lower based on procedural timelines. Key drivers include DOJ priorities, congressional oversight, and any indictments filed before year-end 2026. Resolution hinges on verifiable arrests meeting standard legal thresholds, with traders monitoring court filings, confirmation hearings, and executive actions that could accelerate or delay proceedings across jurisdictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$119,662マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on this multi-outcome market centers on ongoing federal and state investigations into former officials, including intelligence community figures and attorneys general, alongside foreign political cases. John Brennan leads at roughly 50% implied probability amid speculation over past agency conduct reviews, while outcomes like Letitia James and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero trade lower based on procedural timelines. Key drivers include DOJ priorities, congressional oversight, and any indictments filed before year-end 2026. Resolution hinges on verifiable arrests meeting standard legal thresholds, with traders monitoring court filings, confirmation hearings, and executive actions that could accelerate or delay proceedings across jurisdictions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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