Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on a narrow window to December 31, 2026, with most listed figures facing low implied probabilities due to the limited time for new indictments or detentions to materialize. Primary drivers include ongoing congressional oversight and potential DOJ referrals tied to prior intelligence and public health matters, as well as immigration enforcement actions against activists. Recent developments such as Senate hearings involving former officials and court rulings on protest-related cases have sustained attention on candidates like John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil. International proceedings, including corruption trials and domestic political investigations in countries such as Israel, Hungary, and South Korea, add separate resolution paths. No major qualifying arrests among the listed individuals have occurred in recent months, leaving outcomes dependent on whether pending probes advance to custody before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$417,136 Vol.
アンソニー・ファウチ
10%
ジョン・ブレナン
20%
ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロ
12%
アダム・シフ
3%
バラク・オバマ
2%
ジェームズ・コミー
8%
マフムード・カリール
14%
ジェームズ・クラッパー
12%
レティティア・ジェームズ
4%
ヒラリー・クリントン
2%
ビル・クリントン
1%
ロレッタ・リンチ
8%
スーザン・ライス
9%
キャンディス・オーウェンズ
7%
ギャビン・ニューサム
3%
ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ
5%
ジョン・ケリー
1%
パム・ボンディ
2%
トム・ホーマン
5%
カッシュ・パテル
1%
ブランドン・ジョンソン
11%
リサ・クック
3%
イ・ジュンソク
11%
ジョー・バイデン
1%
$417,136 Vol.
アンソニー・ファウチ
$165,423 Vol.
10%
ジョン・ブレナン
$22,822 Vol.
20%
ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロ
$23,760 Vol.
12%
アダム・シフ
$16,985 Vol.
3%
バラク・オバマ
$29,427 Vol.
2%
ジェームズ・コミー
$10,821 Vol.
8%
マフムード・カリール
$1,385 Vol.
14%
ジェームズ・クラッパー
$8,391 Vol.
12%
レティティア・ジェームズ
$3,637 Vol.
4%
ヒラリー・クリントン
$26,360 Vol.
2%
ビル・クリントン
$2,889 Vol.
1%
ロレッタ・リンチ
$2,411 Vol.
8%
スーザン・ライス
$304 Vol.
9%
キャンディス・オーウェンズ
$268 Vol.
7%
ギャビン・ニューサム
$39,425 Vol.
3%
ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ
$1,949 Vol.
5%
ジョン・ケリー
$503 Vol.
1%
パム・ボンディ
$2,189 Vol.
2%
トム・ホーマン
$41,888 Vol.
5%
カッシュ・パテル
$607 Vol.
1%
ブランドン・ジョンソン
$3,290 Vol.
11%
リサ・クック
$4,042 Vol.
3%
イ・ジュンソク
$794 Vol.
11%
ジョー・バイデン
$7,565 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on a narrow window to December 31, 2026, with most listed figures facing low implied probabilities due to the limited time for new indictments or detentions to materialize. Primary drivers include ongoing congressional oversight and potential DOJ referrals tied to prior intelligence and public health matters, as well as immigration enforcement actions against activists. Recent developments such as Senate hearings involving former officials and court rulings on protest-related cases have sustained attention on candidates like John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil. International proceedings, including corruption trials and domestic political investigations in countries such as Israel, Hungary, and South Korea, add separate resolution paths. No major qualifying arrests among the listed individuals have occurred in recent months, leaving outcomes dependent on whether pending probes advance to custody before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
音量
$417,136マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on a narrow window to December 31, 2026, with most listed figures facing low implied probabilities due to the limited time for new indictments or detentions to materialize. Primary drivers include ongoing congressional oversight and potential DOJ referrals tied to prior intelligence and public health matters, as well as immigration enforcement actions against activists. Recent developments such as Senate hearings involving former officials and court rulings on protest-related cases have sustained attention on candidates like John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil. International proceedings, including corruption trials and domestic political investigations in countries such as Israel, Hungary, and South Korea, add separate resolution paths. No major qualifying arrests among the listed individuals have occurred in recent months, leaving outcomes dependent on whether pending probes advance to custody before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$417,136マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on a narrow window to December 31, 2026, with most listed figures facing low implied probabilities due to the limited time for new indictments or detentions to materialize. Primary drivers include ongoing congressional oversight and potential DOJ referrals tied to prior intelligence and public health matters, as well as immigration enforcement actions against activists. Recent developments such as Senate hearings involving former officials and court rulings on protest-related cases have sustained attention on candidates like John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil. International proceedings, including corruption trials and domestic political investigations in countries such as Israel, Hungary, and South Korea, add separate resolution paths. No major qualifying arrests among the listed individuals have occurred in recent months, leaving outcomes dependent on whether pending probes advance to custody before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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