Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station—the market's resolution source—recorded a peak temperature of 18°C early afternoon on May 4, 2026, amid heavy cloud cover, moderate rain showers, and weak westerly winds that limited solar heating to just 10% sunshine. This aligns precisely with pre-event consensus from HARMONIE and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting highs of 17–19°C under a cool maritime air mass from a low-pressure system over northern Europe, consistent with early May climatology averaging 16°C maxima. Trader-implied odds at virtually 100% for 18°C reflect this strong evidentiary support, with final KNMI daily data expected post-midnight; rare data revisions or unforecasted late clearing could challenge it, though improbable given observed persistence of overcast conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 4?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 4?
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$78,877 Vol.
$78,877 Vol.
2026/05/04
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$78,877 Vol.
$78,877 Vol.
2026/05/04
12°C or below
$1,439 Vol.
No
13°C
$763 Vol.
No
14°C
$2,325 Vol.
No
15°C
$5,278 Vol.
No
16°C
$7,180 Vol.
No
17°C
$9,108 Vol.
No
18°C
$15,887 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$18,171 Vol.
No
20°C
$8,512 Vol.
No
21°C
$7,570 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$2,642 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station—the market's resolution source—recorded a peak temperature of 18°C early afternoon on May 4, 2026, amid heavy cloud cover, moderate rain showers, and weak westerly winds that limited solar heating to just 10% sunshine. This aligns precisely with pre-event consensus from HARMONIE and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting highs of 17–19°C under a cool maritime air mass from a low-pressure system over northern Europe, consistent with early May climatology averaging 16°C maxima. Trader-implied odds at virtually 100% for 18°C reflect this strong evidentiary support, with final KNMI daily data expected post-midnight; rare data revisions or unforecasted late clearing could challenge it, though improbable given observed persistence of overcast conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
音量
$78,877終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station—the market's resolution source—recorded a peak temperature of 18°C early afternoon on May 4, 2026, amid heavy cloud cover, moderate rain showers, and weak westerly winds that limited solar heating to just 10% sunshine. This aligns precisely with pre-event consensus from HARMONIE and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting highs of 17–19°C under a cool maritime air mass from a low-pressure system over northern Europe, consistent with early May climatology averaging 16°C maxima. Trader-implied odds at virtually 100% for 18°C reflect this strong evidentiary support, with final KNMI daily data expected post-midnight; rare data revisions or unforecasted late clearing could challenge it, though improbable given observed persistence of overcast conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$78,877終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station—the market's resolution source—recorded a peak temperature of 18°C early afternoon on May 4, 2026, amid heavy cloud cover, moderate rain showers, and weak westerly winds that limited solar heating to just 10% sunshine. This aligns precisely with pre-event consensus from HARMONIE and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting highs of 17–19°C under a cool maritime air mass from a low-pressure system over northern Europe, consistent with early May climatology averaging 16°C maxima. Trader-implied odds at virtually 100% for 18°C reflect this strong evidentiary support, with final KNMI daily data expected post-midnight; rare data revisions or unforecasted late clearing could challenge it, though improbable given observed persistence of overcast conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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