**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月23日の北京の最高気温は？
7月23日の北京の最高気温は？
29°C 31%
30°C 24%
28°C 19%
31°C 12.3%
新規
$10,432 Vol.
新規
$10,432 Vol.
2026/07/23
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
9%
28°C
19%
29°C
31%
30°C
24%
31°C
12%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 31%
30°C 24%
28°C 19%
31°C 12.3%
新規
$10,432 Vol.
新規
$10,432 Vol.
2026/07/23
24°C or below
$765 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$795 Vol.
1%
26°C
$1,254 Vol.
4%
27°C
$1,236 Vol.
9%
28°C
$765 Vol.
19%
29°C
$816 Vol.
31%
30°C
$934 Vol.
24%
31°C
$704 Vol.
12%
32°C
$1,725 Vol.
3%
33°C
$744 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$694 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling.
Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$10,432終了日
2026/07/23マーケット開始日
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling.
Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$10,432終了日
2026/07/23マーケット開始日
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ET**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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