Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature at exactly 31°C on May 10, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peak daytime highs of 31°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport under overcast skies and light winds that cap solar heating. This reflects a sharp rebound from May 8's rainy 24°C high amid building upper-air ridging over the Sichuan Basin, exceeding the early-May subtropical monsoon climatology of 27°C averages. While model uncertainty remains, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for greater insolation or southerly wind shifts boosting advection; final CMA hourly data through midnight UTC will resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 10?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 10?
31°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$72,971 Vol.
$72,971 Vol.
2026/05/10
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$72,971 Vol.
$72,971 Vol.
2026/05/10
26°C or below
$5,498 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,957 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,923 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,682 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,962 Vol.
No
31°C
$14,600 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$7,389 Vol.
No
33°C
$5,827 Vol.
No
34°C
$5,808 Vol.
No
35°C
$3,897 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$3,429 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature at exactly 31°C on May 10, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peak daytime highs of 31°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport under overcast skies and light winds that cap solar heating. This reflects a sharp rebound from May 8's rainy 24°C high amid building upper-air ridging over the Sichuan Basin, exceeding the early-May subtropical monsoon climatology of 27°C averages. While model uncertainty remains, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for greater insolation or southerly wind shifts boosting advection; final CMA hourly data through midnight UTC will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
音量
$72,971終了日
2026/05/10マーケット開始日
May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature at exactly 31°C on May 10, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peak daytime highs of 31°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport under overcast skies and light winds that cap solar heating. This reflects a sharp rebound from May 8's rainy 24°C high amid building upper-air ridging over the Sichuan Basin, exceeding the early-May subtropical monsoon climatology of 27°C averages. While model uncertainty remains, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for greater insolation or southerly wind shifts boosting advection; final CMA hourly data through midnight UTC will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$72,971終了日
2026/05/10マーケット開始日
May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature at exactly 31°C on May 10, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peak daytime highs of 31°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport under overcast skies and light winds that cap solar heating. This reflects a sharp rebound from May 8's rainy 24°C high amid building upper-air ridging over the Sichuan Basin, exceeding the early-May subtropical monsoon climatology of 27°C averages. While model uncertainty remains, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for greater insolation or southerly wind shifts boosting advection; final CMA hourly data through midnight UTC will resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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