Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 3, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun station and supporting data from global models like ECMWF. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—hallmarks of early May's transitional monsoon onset—suppressed daytime solar heating, with hourly readings peaking near 27°C amid overcast skies, aligning below the historical May average high of 29°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game certainty from real-time meteorological data, though minimal scenarios like a late-afternoon clearing and rapid insolation could challenge it if unvalidated station logs show a 0.5°C rounding discrepancy before final CMA validation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 3?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 3?
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$50,523 Vol.
$50,523 Vol.
2026/05/03
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$50,523 Vol.
$50,523 Vol.
2026/05/03
23°C or below
$2,172 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,162 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,156 Vol.
No
26°C
$10,458 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,566 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$5,228 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,317 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,359 Vol.
No
31°C
$3,622 Vol.
No
32°C
$4,910 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$5,573 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 3, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun station and supporting data from global models like ECMWF. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—hallmarks of early May's transitional monsoon onset—suppressed daytime solar heating, with hourly readings peaking near 27°C amid overcast skies, aligning below the historical May average high of 29°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game certainty from real-time meteorological data, though minimal scenarios like a late-afternoon clearing and rapid insolation could challenge it if unvalidated station logs show a 0.5°C rounding discrepancy before final CMA validation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 12:50 AM ET
音量
$50,523終了日
2026/05/03マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 12:50 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 3, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun station and supporting data from global models like ECMWF. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—hallmarks of early May's transitional monsoon onset—suppressed daytime solar heating, with hourly readings peaking near 27°C amid overcast skies, aligning below the historical May average high of 29°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game certainty from real-time meteorological data, though minimal scenarios like a late-afternoon clearing and rapid insolation could challenge it if unvalidated station logs show a 0.5°C rounding discrepancy before final CMA validation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$50,523終了日
2026/05/03マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 12:50 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 3, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun station and supporting data from global models like ECMWF. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—hallmarks of early May's transitional monsoon onset—suppressed daytime solar heating, with hourly readings peaking near 27°C amid overcast skies, aligning below the historical May average high of 29°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game certainty from real-time meteorological data, though minimal scenarios like a late-afternoon clearing and rapid insolation could challenge it if unvalidated station logs show a 0.5°C rounding discrepancy before final CMA validation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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