Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF places Madrid’s July 8 maximum near 39–40 °C amid a persistent heat dome over central Spain, with limited cloud cover and weak winds favoring daytime heating. The 2026 summer’s record warmth—1.6 °C above average through June—has sustained elevated baseline temperatures, while ensemble spreads of roughly ±1–2 °C keep 39 °C and 40 °C brackets nearly even in trader pricing. Official warnings highlight the 38–41 °C window as most probable, with slight upside risk if subsidence strengthens further before the July 8 verification window closes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月8日のマドリードの最高気温は?
39°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$129,322 Vol.
$129,322 Vol.
36°C or below
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
Yes
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C or higher
No
39°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$129,322 Vol.
$129,322 Vol.
36°C or below
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
Yes
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Jul 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF places Madrid’s July 8 maximum near 39–40 °C amid a persistent heat dome over central Spain, with limited cloud cover and weak winds favoring daytime heating. The 2026 summer’s record warmth—1.6 °C above average through June—has sustained elevated baseline temperatures, while ensemble spreads of roughly ±1–2 °C keep 39 °C and 40 °C brackets nearly even in trader pricing. Official warnings highlight the 38–41 °C window as most probable, with slight upside risk if subsidence strengthens further before the July 8 verification window closes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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