Recent official forecasts from agencies like the German Weather Service and international models indicate Munich's July 15 high will likely reach 26–29°C, with most runs clustering near 28–29°C under partly cloudy skies and late showers. Cloud cover and scattered precipitation from a passing frontal boundary are the main moderating factors, limiting full solar heating compared to clearer conditions that could push readings toward record territory for mid-July. This genuine model spread—driven by timing of showers and boundary-layer moisture—explains why trader consensus splits tightly between 26°C and 27°C while assigning lower but meaningful probability to 28°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum before market resolution.