Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$109,028 Vol.
$109,028 Vol.
2026/04/25
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$109,028 Vol.
$109,028 Vol.
2026/04/25
12°C or below
$899 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,429 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,150 Vol.
No
15°C
$7,823 Vol.
No
16°C
$20,300 Vol.
No
17°C
$12,896 Vol.
No
18°C
$16,693 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$14,560 Vol.
No
20°C
$18,684 Vol.
No
21°C
$7,959 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$6,637 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
音量
$109,028終了日
2026/04/25マーケット開始日
Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$109,028終了日
2026/04/25マーケット開始日
Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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