"3月10日に大騒動を起こしますか？" is a daily prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Bitcoin's price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the daily window specified in the title. The current market probability is 53% for "下がる." A price of 53% means the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Bitcoin price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"3月10日に大騒動を起こしますか？" is an active short-term market on Polymarket. Trading volume can accumulate quickly as the daily window progresses — jump in early to help set the odds before this window closes.

To trade on "3月10日に大騒動を起こしますか？," decide whether you believe Bitcoin's price at noon ET on March 10 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than Bitcoin's price at noon ET on March 9. Buy "Up" if you think the price will rise day-over-day, or "Down" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

The current probability for "3月10日に大騒動を起こしますか？" is 53% for "下がる," meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 53% chance that Bitcoin's price will finish 下がる over this daily window. These odds update in real-time as traders react to live Bitcoin price data. Over a full day, odds reflect evolving sentiment as the day's price action unfolds. Check back frequently or trade now before the window closes.

The "3月10日に大騒動を起こしますか？" market resolves based on a comparison of Bitcoin's price at noon ET on March 10 versus noon ET on March 9, using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. If the March 10 noon price is higher, the outcome is "Up"; if lower, "Down"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. Each "3月10日に大騒動を起こしますか？" page shows real-time Up/Down probabilities reflecting trader sentiment on whether Bitcoin will be higher or lower at noon ET tomorrow versus today. Use the date navigation features at the top of the page to browse past and upcoming daily windows. You can also view the Order Book and Activity tab for a real-time feed of trade flow.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs. “3月10日に大騒動を起こしますか？” is still building its trading base for this window, so the current Up/Down probabilities may reflect only a small number of trades. As more participants enter before the window closes, the odds will become increasingly robust. For the latest stats on Polymarket's overall prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "3月10日に大騒動を起こしますか？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page — or navigate to the current active daily window using the navigation bar at the top of the page — select "Buy Up" or "Buy Down," enter your amount, and click "Trade." If the window shown in the title has already closed, use the navigation bar to find the current live window. If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 53¢ for "下がる" in the "3月10日に大騒動を起こしますか？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 53% chance that Bitcoin's price will finish 下がる over this daily window. If you buy "下がる" shares at 53¢ and Bitcoin finishes in that direction, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 47¢ per share. If Bitcoin moves the other way, those shares are worth $0. Prices can shift throughout the day as Bitcoin's price action unfolds toward the noon ET close.

The "3月10日に大騒動を起こしますか？" market is live and resolves at Noon ET March 10 — approximately about 10 hours from now. Trading is open. The Up/Down odds will continue shifting in real time as Bitcoin's price moves and traders react. Once the window closes, the market resolves based on whether Bitcoin's Binance price at noon ET on March 10 is higher or lower than at noon ET on March 9.

No comments yet for this daily window — check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades, or browse comments on other Bitcoin Up or Down windows using the navigation bar above.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture — including daily Bitcoin direction markets like "3月10日に大騒動を起こしますか？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.