India and Pakistan have maintained a fragile ceasefire since their four-day conflict in May 2025, when Indian strikes under Operation Sindoor targeted alleged militant infrastructure following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam. Relations remain frozen, with the Indus Waters Treaty suspended, mutual accusations over cross-border militancy continuing, and both sides issuing warnings of consequences from any escalation. No major new military incidents or diplomatic breakthroughs have occurred in the past several months, though limited unofficial signals of possible dialogue have surfaced alongside persistent domestic pressures and strategic competition. Traders assessing strike probabilities focus on the absence of fresh triggers, nuclear deterrence dynamics, and the lack of scheduled high-level engagements that could shift the status quo before late 2026.