**Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Likud projected to win roughly 19–26 seats, well below its 32 seats from the prior term.** Multiple surveys released in late August, including those from Kan News, Channel 13, and others, place Likud at 20–23 seats on average, with consistent downward movement from earlier August readings. Key drivers include vote fragmentation on the right. The launch of Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party has drawn support primarily from Likud and Religious Zionist voters, with recent Kantar/Kan polling giving it four seats while pushing Likud down one seat to 21. Similar patterns appear across other surveys, where right-wing splintering reduces Likud’s share without boosting the overall coalition bloc above roughly 48–52 seats. Broader shifts favor centrist and opposition parties. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads most polls with 23–25 seats, reflecting gains among voters seeking alternatives to the current government. Naftali Bennett’s Together party and other opposition lists have also held or improved ground, widening the gap. Reports note internal Likud discussions acknowledging seat losses and challenges in regaining support ahead of the vote. These trends produce a trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for Likud losing seats. While individual polls vary and late developments could shift results, the sustained polling decline and structural fragmentation provide the primary basis for current market pricing.