**Traders assign a 70.5% probability to “No” for Likud and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP, led by Bezalel Smotrich) forming a joint electoral list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election.** Recent polling and party activity show RZP operating independently. It finalized its own primary slate in late July, with Smotrich in the top slot and other MKs securing prominent positions. Multiple late-August surveys place RZP near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold, largely due to vote-splitting from Ofer Winter’s newly launched People of Israel party, which targets overlapping religious-nationalist and settlement-supporting voters. Netanyahu has publicly urged unity on the right, specifically calling for Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) and RZP to merge or coordinate to avoid wasted votes. Ben-Gvir has signaled opposition to such a step with RZP. Parallel reports indicate Smotrich exploring a possible joint ticket with former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin rather than with Likud itself. Likud completed its own primaries and slate separately, with no announced technical merger or shared list involving RZP. These developments—distinct party lists, threshold concerns driving alternative alliance talks, and the absence of any Likud-RZP joint framework—align with the current trader consensus favoring separate runs. Late-breaking negotiations or poll shifts could still alter the picture before the September deadline for final lists.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
30% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/07
はい
30% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/07
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign a 70.5% probability to “No” for Likud and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP, led by Bezalel Smotrich) forming a joint electoral list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election.**
Recent polling and party activity show RZP operating independently. It finalized its own primary slate in late July, with Smotrich in the top slot and other MKs securing prominent positions. Multiple late-August surveys place RZP near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold, largely due to vote-splitting from Ofer Winter’s newly launched People of Israel party, which targets overlapping religious-nationalist and settlement-supporting voters.
Netanyahu has publicly urged unity on the right, specifically calling for Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) and RZP to merge or coordinate to avoid wasted votes. Ben-Gvir has signaled opposition to such a step with RZP. Parallel reports indicate Smotrich exploring a possible joint ticket with former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin rather than with Likud itself. Likud completed its own primaries and slate separately, with no announced technical merger or shared list involving RZP.
These developments—distinct party lists, threshold concerns driving alternative alliance talks, and the absence of any Likud-RZP joint framework—align with the current trader consensus favoring separate runs. Late-breaking negotiations or poll shifts could still alter the picture before the September deadline for final lists.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
マーケット開始日： Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
音量
$88終了日
2026/09/07マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign a 70.5% probability to “No” for Likud and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP, led by Bezalel Smotrich) forming a joint electoral list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election.**
Recent polling and party activity show RZP operating independently. It finalized its own primary slate in late July, with Smotrich in the top slot and other MKs securing prominent positions. Multiple late-August surveys place RZP near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold, largely due to vote-splitting from Ofer Winter’s newly launched People of Israel party, which targets overlapping religious-nationalist and settlement-supporting voters.
Netanyahu has publicly urged unity on the right, specifically calling for Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) and RZP to merge or coordinate to avoid wasted votes. Ben-Gvir has signaled opposition to such a step with RZP. Parallel reports indicate Smotrich exploring a possible joint ticket with former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin rather than with Likud itself. Likud completed its own primaries and slate separately, with no announced technical merger or shared list involving RZP.
These developments—distinct party lists, threshold concerns driving alternative alliance talks, and the absence of any Likud-RZP joint framework—align with the current trader consensus favoring separate runs. Late-breaking negotiations or poll shifts could still alter the picture before the September deadline for final lists.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
音量
$88終了日
2026/09/07マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 70.5% probability to “No” for Likud and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP, led by Bezalel Smotrich) forming a joint electoral list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election.** Recent polling and party activity show RZP operating independently. It finalized its own primary slate in late July, with Smotrich in the top slot and other MKs securing prominent positions. Multiple late-August surveys place RZP near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold, largely due to vote-splitting from Ofer Winter’s newly launched People of Israel party, which targets overlapping religious-nationalist and settlement-supporting voters. Netanyahu has publicly urged unity on the right, specifically calling for Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) and RZP to merge or coordinate to avoid wasted votes. Ben-Gvir has signaled opposition to such a step with RZP. Parallel reports indicate Smotrich exploring a possible joint ticket with former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin rather than with Likud itself. Likud completed its own primaries and slate separately, with no announced technical merger or shared list involving RZP. These developments—distinct party lists, threshold concerns driving alternative alliance talks, and the absence of any Likud-RZP joint framework—align with the current trader consensus favoring separate runs. Late-breaking negotiations or poll shifts could still alter the picture before the September deadline for final lists.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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