**Ben-Gvir’s firm public rejection of any joint list with Smotrich has anchored trader expectations for a “No” outcome.** In late August 2026, Prime Minister Netanyahu urged the Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism leaders to reunite ahead of the October 27 election to consolidate right-wing votes and prevent any party from falling below the 3.25% threshold. Ben-Gvir immediately declared the decision “final and complete,” arguing that combining the lists would cost his party 3–4 seats because the two appeal to distinct voter bases; polls showed Otzma Yehudit holding steady near 6–8 seats while Religious Zionism risked missing the threshold if running alone. Smotrich signaled openness to unity in principle, but Ben-Gvir’s repeated statements since June—coupled with his preference for alternatives such as pairing Smotrich with Ofer Winter—have left little room for a last-minute technical bloc. This explicit, repeated opposition and the short timeline to candidate-list finalization underpin the current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
22% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/08
はい
22% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/08
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Ben-Gvir’s firm public rejection of any joint list with Smotrich has anchored trader expectations for a “No” outcome.** In late August 2026, Prime Minister Netanyahu urged the Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism leaders to reunite ahead of the October 27 election to consolidate right-wing votes and prevent any party from falling below the 3.25% threshold. Ben-Gvir immediately declared the decision “final and complete,” arguing that combining the lists would cost his party 3–4 seats because the two appeal to distinct voter bases; polls showed Otzma Yehudit holding steady near 6–8 seats while Religious Zionism risked missing the threshold if running alone. Smotrich signaled openness to unity in principle, but Ben-Gvir’s repeated statements since June—coupled with his preference for alternatives such as pairing Smotrich with Ofer Winter—have left little room for a last-minute technical bloc. This explicit, repeated opposition and the short timeline to candidate-list finalization underpin the current market pricing.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
マーケット開始日： Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
音量
$1,862終了日
2026/09/08マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Ben-Gvir’s firm public rejection of any joint list with Smotrich has anchored trader expectations for a “No” outcome.** In late August 2026, Prime Minister Netanyahu urged the Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism leaders to reunite ahead of the October 27 election to consolidate right-wing votes and prevent any party from falling below the 3.25% threshold. Ben-Gvir immediately declared the decision “final and complete,” arguing that combining the lists would cost his party 3–4 seats because the two appeal to distinct voter bases; polls showed Otzma Yehudit holding steady near 6–8 seats while Religious Zionism risked missing the threshold if running alone. Smotrich signaled openness to unity in principle, but Ben-Gvir’s repeated statements since June—coupled with his preference for alternatives such as pairing Smotrich with Ofer Winter—have left little room for a last-minute technical bloc. This explicit, repeated opposition and the short timeline to candidate-list finalization underpin the current market pricing.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
音量
$1,862終了日
2026/09/08マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Ben-Gvir’s firm public rejection of any joint list with Smotrich has anchored trader expectations for a “No” outcome.** In late August 2026, Prime Minister Netanyahu urged the Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism leaders to reunite ahead of the October 27 election to consolidate right-wing votes and prevent any party from falling below the 3.25% threshold. Ben-Gvir immediately declared the decision “final and complete,” arguing that combining the lists would cost his party 3–4 seats because the two appeal to distinct voter bases; polls showed Otzma Yehudit holding steady near 6–8 seats while Religious Zionism risked missing the threshold if running alone. Smotrich signaled openness to unity in principle, but Ben-Gvir’s repeated statements since June—coupled with his preference for alternatives such as pairing Smotrich with Ofer Winter—have left little room for a last-minute technical bloc. This explicit, repeated opposition and the short timeline to candidate-list finalization underpin the current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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