The April 30 deadline elapsed without any declaration of independence from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), solidifying trader consensus at 100% probability for "No" as no official announcements emerged from KRG leadership, parliament, or federal institutions. Recent political deadlock has stalled government formation in the Kurdistan Region, leaving it exposed amid over 800 Iranian drone and missile attacks since late February, while KRG statements reaffirm commitment to Iraq's federal sovereignty, stability, and good neighborly relations. Absent international support and facing Baghdad's historical opposition—evident since the 2017 referendum backlash—independence remains untenable. Realistic shifts would require verifiable late-breaking KRG action, though primary sources confirm none occurred.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$58,254 Vol.
$58,254 Vol.
2026/04/30
はい
$58,254 Vol.
$58,254 Vol.
2026/04/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The April 30 deadline elapsed without any declaration of independence from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), solidifying trader consensus at 100% probability for "No" as no official announcements emerged from KRG leadership, parliament, or federal institutions. Recent political deadlock has stalled government formation in the Kurdistan Region, leaving it exposed amid over 800 Iranian drone and missile attacks since late February, while KRG statements reaffirm commitment to Iraq's federal sovereignty, stability, and good neighborly relations. Absent international support and facing Baghdad's historical opposition—evident since the 2017 referendum backlash—independence remains untenable. Realistic shifts would require verifiable late-breaking KRG action, though primary sources confirm none occurred.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
音量
$58,254終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The April 30 deadline elapsed without any declaration of independence from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), solidifying trader consensus at 100% probability for "No" as no official announcements emerged from KRG leadership, parliament, or federal institutions. Recent political deadlock has stalled government formation in the Kurdistan Region, leaving it exposed amid over 800 Iranian drone and missile attacks since late February, while KRG statements reaffirm commitment to Iraq's federal sovereignty, stability, and good neighborly relations. Absent international support and facing Baghdad's historical opposition—evident since the 2017 referendum backlash—independence remains untenable. Realistic shifts would require verifiable late-breaking KRG action, though primary sources confirm none occurred.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$58,254終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
The April 30 deadline elapsed without any declaration of independence from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), solidifying trader consensus at 100% probability for "No" as no official announcements emerged from KRG leadership, parliament, or federal institutions. Recent political deadlock has stalled government formation in the Kurdistan Region, leaving it exposed amid over 800 Iranian drone and missile attacks since late February, while KRG statements reaffirm commitment to Iraq's federal sovereignty, stability, and good neighborly relations. Absent international support and facing Baghdad's historical opposition—evident since the 2017 referendum backlash—independence remains untenable. Realistic shifts would require verifiable late-breaking KRG action, though primary sources confirm none occurred.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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