North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches on April 7-8 toward the Sea of Japan—its second such salvo in days following Pyongyang's declaration of South Korea as its "principal enemy"—have reinforced trader consensus on a 58% implied probability of further tests by April 30. State media KCNA confirmed these included cluster-bomb warheads on Hwasong-11 tactical ballistic missiles, violating UN sanctions amid stalled inter-Korean diplomacy and ongoing weapons development under Kim Jong Un's supervision. March saw multiple barrages, including from new destroyers and rocket systems, signaling no de-escalation; traders weigh this cadence against potential US-South joint exercises or rare pauses, viewing the next three weeks as ripe for provocation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/04/30
新規
新規
2026/04/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches on April 7-8 toward the Sea of Japan—its second such salvo in days following Pyongyang's declaration of South Korea as its "principal enemy"—have reinforced trader consensus on a 58% implied probability of further tests by April 30. State media KCNA confirmed these included cluster-bomb warheads on Hwasong-11 tactical ballistic missiles, violating UN sanctions amid stalled inter-Korean diplomacy and ongoing weapons development under Kim Jong Un's supervision. March saw multiple barrages, including from new destroyers and rocket systems, signaling no de-escalation; traders weigh this cadence against potential US-South joint exercises or rare pauses, viewing the next three weeks as ripe for provocation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
マーケット開始日： Apr 8, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
音量
$95終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches on April 7-8 toward the Sea of Japan—its second such salvo in days following Pyongyang's declaration of South Korea as its "principal enemy"—have reinforced trader consensus on a 58% implied probability of further tests by April 30. State media KCNA confirmed these included cluster-bomb warheads on Hwasong-11 tactical ballistic missiles, violating UN sanctions amid stalled inter-Korean diplomacy and ongoing weapons development under Kim Jong Un's supervision. March saw multiple barrages, including from new destroyers and rocket systems, signaling no de-escalation; traders weigh this cadence against potential US-South joint exercises or rare pauses, viewing the next three weeks as ripe for provocation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
音量
$121終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches on April 7-8 toward the Sea of Japan—its second such salvo in days following Pyongyang's declaration of South Korea as its "principal enemy"—have reinforced trader consensus on a 58% implied probability of further tests by April 30. State media KCNA confirmed these included cluster-bomb warheads on Hwasong-11 tactical ballistic missiles, violating UN sanctions amid stalled inter-Korean diplomacy and ongoing weapons development under Kim Jong Un's supervision. March saw multiple barrages, including from new destroyers and rocket systems, signaling no de-escalation; traders weigh this cadence against potential US-South joint exercises or rare pauses, viewing the next three weeks as ripe for provocation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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