Traders on Polymarket price a 51% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike its cash rate at the June 18 board meeting, edging out no change at 41%, driven by sticky underlying inflation. Q1 trimmed mean inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—above the 2-3% target and consensus forecasts—while the labor market remains tight with unemployment holding near 4.0% and robust jobs growth. The RBA's May decision maintained rates at 4.35% but adopted a hawkish tone, emphasizing data dependence amid persistent services inflation. A rate cut at 8% reflects low odds given cooling headline CPI but resilient wage pressures; focus now shifts to mid-June labor and inflation previews that could sway the closely contested hike/no-change dynamic.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Increase 54%
No Change 40%
Decrease 7.8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease
8%
No Change
40%
Increase
52%
Increase 54%
No Change 40%
Decrease 7.8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease
$0 Vol.
8%
No Change
$0 Vol.
40%
Increase
$6,060 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Traders on Polymarket price a 51% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike its cash rate at the June 18 board meeting, edging out no change at 41%, driven by sticky underlying inflation. Q1 trimmed mean inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—above the 2-3% target and consensus forecasts—while the labor market remains tight with unemployment holding near 4.0% and robust jobs growth. The RBA's May decision maintained rates at 4.35% but adopted a hawkish tone, emphasizing data dependence amid persistent services inflation. A rate cut at 8% reflects low odds given cooling headline CPI but resilient wage pressures; focus now shifts to mid-June labor and inflation previews that could sway the closely contested hike/no-change dynamic.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
音量
$6,060終了日
Jun 16, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Traders on Polymarket price a 51% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike its cash rate at the June 18 board meeting, edging out no change at 41%, driven by sticky underlying inflation. Q1 trimmed mean inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—above the 2-3% target and consensus forecasts—while the labor market remains tight with unemployment holding near 4.0% and robust jobs growth. The RBA's May decision maintained rates at 4.35% but adopted a hawkish tone, emphasizing data dependence amid persistent services inflation. A rate cut at 8% reflects low odds given cooling headline CPI but resilient wage pressures; focus now shifts to mid-June labor and inflation previews that could sway the closely contested hike/no-change dynamic.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
音量
$6,060終了日
Jun 16, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders on Polymarket price a 51% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike its cash rate at the June 18 board meeting, edging out no change at 41%, driven by sticky underlying inflation. Q1 trimmed mean inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—above the 2-3% target and consensus forecasts—while the labor market remains tight with unemployment holding near 4.0% and robust jobs growth. The RBA's May decision maintained rates at 4.35% but adopted a hawkish tone, emphasizing data dependence amid persistent services inflation. A rate cut at 8% reflects low odds given cooling headline CPI but resilient wage pressures; focus now shifts to mid-June labor and inflation previews that could sway the closely contested hike/no-change dynamic.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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