The large and deep field of over 400 titled players in the standard 11-round Swiss blitz format creates substantial variance, leaving even the highest-rated entrants like Magnus Carlsen and Hikaru Nakamura with implied probabilities near 10-12 percent. Recent weekly results underscore the point, as Carlsen claimed the August 4 event while an under-the-radar player took the August 11 edition and other strong grandmasters such as Alireza Firouzja and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave have prevailed in preceding weeks. Nakamura’s historical edge in total victories is offset by the current participation of numerous elite GMs in peak form, including recent Candidates participants and established blitz specialists. This broad distribution of talent, combined with the short time control that amplifies upset potential, keeps the consensus tightly bunched across dozens of contenders rather than concentrating on any single favorite.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Magnus Carlsen 35%
Hikaru Nakamura 11%
Fabiano Caruana 9%
Wesley So 9%
Magnus Carlsen
22%
Hikaru Nakamura
11%
Fabiano Caruana
9%
Wesley So
9%
Ding Liren
9%
Brandon Jacobson
9%
Tuomas Turunen
9%
Levon Aronian
9%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
9%
Sam Sevian
9%
Volen Dyulgerov
9%
Vincent Keymer
9%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
9%
Alireza Firouzja
5%
Dincer Tasdogen
5%
Faustino Oro
5%
Frederik Svane
5%
Arjun Erigaisi
5%
Denis Lazavik
5%
Sina Movahed
5%
Alexander Grischuk
5%
Aleksandar Indjic
5%
Aleksandr Shimanov
5%
Cristobal Henriquez Villagra
5%
Yoseph Theolifus Taher
5%
Zhamsaran Tsydypov
5%
Gukesh Dommaraju
5%
Wei Yi
5%
Vladimir Fedoseev
5%
Christopher Yoo
5%
Awonder Liang
5%
Andrew Tang
5%
Aravindh Chithambaram
5%
Aleksei Sarana
5%
Benjamin Bok
5%
Andrey Esipenko
5%
Bardiya Daneshvar
5%
Bogdan-Daniel Deac
5%
Dmitry Andreikin
5%
David Anton
5%
Dau Khuong Duy
5%
Hans Niemann
5%
Haowen Xue
5%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
5%
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
5%
Jose Martinez
5%
Jules Moussard
5%
Jeffery Xiong
5%
Le Tuan Minh
5%
Matthias Bluebaum
5%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
5%
Pranav Venkatesh
5%
Renato Terry Lujan
5%
Rudik Makarian
5%
Rasmus Svane
5%
Sergey Sklokin
5%
Seyyed Mohammad Amin Tabatabaei
5%
Shamsiddin Vokhidov
5%
Vladislav Artemiev
5%
Haik Martirosyan
5%
Nihal Sarin
5%
Nikolas Theodorou
5%
Oleksandr Bortnyk
5%
Parham Maghsoodloo
5%
Pranesh Munirethinam
5%
Javokhir Sindarov
5%
Magnus Carlsen 35%
Hikaru Nakamura 11%
Fabiano Caruana 9%
Wesley So 9%
Magnus Carlsen
22%
Hikaru Nakamura
11%
Fabiano Caruana
9%
Wesley So
9%
Ding Liren
9%
Brandon Jacobson
9%
Tuomas Turunen
9%
Levon Aronian
9%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
9%
Sam Sevian
9%
Volen Dyulgerov
9%
Vincent Keymer
9%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
9%
Alireza Firouzja
5%
Dincer Tasdogen
5%
Faustino Oro
5%
Frederik Svane
5%
Arjun Erigaisi
5%
Denis Lazavik
5%
Sina Movahed
5%
Alexander Grischuk
5%
Aleksandar Indjic
5%
Aleksandr Shimanov
5%
Cristobal Henriquez Villagra
5%
Yoseph Theolifus Taher
5%
Zhamsaran Tsydypov
5%
Gukesh Dommaraju
5%
Wei Yi
5%
Vladimir Fedoseev
5%
Christopher Yoo
5%
Awonder Liang
5%
Andrew Tang
5%
Aravindh Chithambaram
5%
Aleksei Sarana
5%
Benjamin Bok
5%
Andrey Esipenko
5%
Bardiya Daneshvar
5%
Bogdan-Daniel Deac
5%
Dmitry Andreikin
5%
David Anton
5%
Dau Khuong Duy
5%
Hans Niemann
5%
Haowen Xue
5%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
5%
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
5%
Jose Martinez
5%
Jules Moussard
5%
Jeffery Xiong
5%
Le Tuan Minh
5%
Matthias Bluebaum
5%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
5%
Pranav Venkatesh
5%
Renato Terry Lujan
5%
Rudik Makarian
5%
Rasmus Svane
5%
Sergey Sklokin
5%
Seyyed Mohammad Amin Tabatabaei
5%
Shamsiddin Vokhidov
5%
Vladislav Artemiev
5%
Haik Martirosyan
5%
Nihal Sarin
5%
Nikolas Theodorou
5%
Oleksandr Bortnyk
5%
Parham Maghsoodloo
5%
Pranesh Munirethinam
5%
Javokhir Sindarov
5%
If the listed player does not play their corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If this tournament is postponed after September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Chess.com (https://www.chess.com/events/info/2026-titled-tuesday-blitz); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
If the listed player does not play their corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If this tournament is postponed after September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Chess.com (https://www.chess.com/events/info/2026-titled-tuesday-blitz); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The large and deep field of over 400 titled players in the standard 11-round Swiss blitz format creates substantial variance, leaving even the highest-rated entrants like Magnus Carlsen and Hikaru Nakamura with implied probabilities near 10-12 percent. Recent weekly results underscore the point, as Carlsen claimed the August 4 event while an under-the-radar player took the August 11 edition and other strong grandmasters such as Alireza Firouzja and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave have prevailed in preceding weeks. Nakamura’s historical edge in total victories is offset by the current participation of numerous elite GMs in peak form, including recent Candidates participants and established blitz specialists. This broad distribution of talent, combined with the short time control that amplifies upset potential, keeps the consensus tightly bunched across dozens of contenders rather than concentrating on any single favorite.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問