Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the scheduled September 24 White House summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping center trader attention on whether the existing truce—capping most duties near 20% and set to lapse November 10—will be extended or adjusted before year-end. Ongoing bilateral discussions on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods, alongside Section 301 forced-labor tariffs at 12.5% and separate probes into overcapacity, create multiple pathways for rates to settle below 15% or remain higher depending on outcomes. The closely matched probabilities across low and mid-range buckets reflect uncertainty over these negotiations, potential post-election policy shifts, and enforcement of prior commitments on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and fentanyl precursors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25～35％ 32%
5%未満 32%
5～15％ 25%
35％以上 13%
新規
新規
2026/12/30
5%未満
32%
5～15％
25%
15〜25％
13%
25～35％
32%
35％以上
13%
25～35％ 32%
5%未満 32%
5～15％ 25%
35％以上 13%
新規
新規
2026/12/30
5%未満
$43 Vol.
32%
5～15％
$0 Vol.
25%
15〜25％
$0 Vol.
13%
25～35％
$0 Vol.
32%
35％以上
$145 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the scheduled September 24 White House summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping center trader attention on whether the existing truce—capping most duties near 20% and set to lapse November 10—will be extended or adjusted before year-end. Ongoing bilateral discussions on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods, alongside Section 301 forced-labor tariffs at 12.5% and separate probes into overcapacity, create multiple pathways for rates to settle below 15% or remain higher depending on outcomes. The closely matched probabilities across low and mid-range buckets reflect uncertainty over these negotiations, potential post-election policy shifts, and enforcement of prior commitments on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and fentanyl precursors.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
音量
$188終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the scheduled September 24 White House summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping center trader attention on whether the existing truce—capping most duties near 20% and set to lapse November 10—will be extended or adjusted before year-end. Ongoing bilateral discussions on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods, alongside Section 301 forced-labor tariffs at 12.5% and separate probes into overcapacity, create multiple pathways for rates to settle below 15% or remain higher depending on outcomes. The closely matched probabilities across low and mid-range buckets reflect uncertainty over these negotiations, potential post-election policy shifts, and enforcement of prior commitments on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and fentanyl precursors.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
音量
$188終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the scheduled September 24 White House summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping center trader attention on whether the existing truce—capping most duties near 20% and set to lapse November 10—will be extended or adjusted before year-end. Ongoing bilateral discussions on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods, alongside Section 301 forced-labor tariffs at 12.5% and separate probes into overcapacity, create multiple pathways for rates to settle below 15% or remain higher depending on outcomes. The closely matched probabilities across low and mid-range buckets reflect uncertainty over these negotiations, potential post-election policy shifts, and enforcement of prior commitments on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and fentanyl precursors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問