**No** holds a commanding 91.3% market-implied probability because the Vatican under Pope Leo XIV has shown no signs of convening a third ecumenical council in 2026. Recent activity centers on deepening Vatican II’s legacy—through catecheses on its documents, the September 2026 Note marking sixty years of *Nostra Aetate*, and the Synod on Synodality’s continued rollout toward a 2028 Ecclesial Assembly—rather than launching a new council. Official Vatican communications and papal audiences emphasize implementation of existing conciliar teaching and synodal processes, not the massive logistical and theological undertaking a Vatican III would require. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected papal announcement or sudden global crisis prompting an extraordinary convocation, yet nothing in current reporting or the Church’s published calendar points in that direction before year-end. Traders are pricing the absence of credible signals as decisive.