The 2026 Victorian state election on 28 November features an incumbent Labor government under Premier Ben Carroll seeking a fourth term against the Liberal–National Coalition and minor parties. Recent polling shows the Coalition extending its primary vote lead, often in the low 30s, while Labor has fallen to the low-to-mid 20s following a July leadership transition that has not reversed long-term voter dissatisfaction after more than a decade in office. One Nation has surged into second or first place on primary votes in several surveys, drawing support on cost-of-living, crime and health concerns and fragmenting preferences in a way that boosts the Coalition’s two-party-preferred position. Traders price the Liberal–National Coalition as the clear frontrunner at 66.5 percent implied probability, with One Nation at 20.5 percent reflecting its elevated but still secondary chance of forming government or forcing a hung parliament; Labor sits at 11.5 percent amid its weakened standing. The Greens remain marginal at 3.1 percent. Scheduled events such as writs issuance in early November and the final weeks of campaigning could still shift sentiment before election day.