Recent pledges by Anthropic and OpenAI to embed independent third-party evaluators with ongoing, employee-level access to AI models and training processes have set the benchmark for this market. Dario Amodei’s September 12 announcement, quickly echoed by Sam Altman, highlighted competitive and safety pressures amid concerns over frontier large language model capabilities. Google, Microsoft, Meta, and xAI have not matched these commitments, reflected in their low 20-23% market-implied probabilities. Over 100 AI researchers, including Geoffrey Hinton, have since issued a letter demanding stronger protections for evaluator independence, transparency, and retaliation safeguards to make such oversight credible. With the October 31 deadline approaching, traders are watching for further executive statements, California regulatory follow-through, or industry standards initiatives that could shift other labs’ positions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$57,785 Vol.
2026/10/31
29%
Meta
21%
SpaceXAI
20%
マイクロソフト
19%
Amazon
18%
ミストラル
15%
バイトダンス
9%
アリババ
7%
Z.ai
7%
Baidu
7%
DeepSeek
6%
美団
6%
ムーンショット
4%
$57,785 Vol.
$9,111 Vol.
29%
Meta
$3,282 Vol.
21%
SpaceXAI
$4,881 Vol.
20%
マイクロソフト
$5,389 Vol.
19%
Amazon
$6,986 Vol.
18%
ミストラル
$6,130 Vol.
15%
バイトダンス
$3,503 Vol.
9%
アリババ
$3,763 Vol.
7%
Z.ai
$1,393 Vol.
7%
Baidu
$419 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$2,858 Vol.
6%
美団
$600 Vol.
6%
ムーンショット
$9,569 Vol.
4%
On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent pledges by Anthropic and OpenAI to embed independent third-party evaluators with ongoing, employee-level access to AI models and training processes have set the benchmark for this market. Dario Amodei’s September 12 announcement, quickly echoed by Sam Altman, highlighted competitive and safety pressures amid concerns over frontier large language model capabilities. Google, Microsoft, Meta, and xAI have not matched these commitments, reflected in their low 20-23% market-implied probabilities. Over 100 AI researchers, including Geoffrey Hinton, have since issued a letter demanding stronger protections for evaluator independence, transparency, and retaliation safeguards to make such oversight credible. With the October 31 deadline approaching, traders are watching for further executive statements, California regulatory follow-through, or industry standards initiatives that could shift other labs’ positions.
On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
音量
$57,785終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 4:59 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent pledges by Anthropic and OpenAI to embed independent third-party evaluators with ongoing, employee-level access to AI models and training processes have set the benchmark for this market. Dario Amodei’s September 12 announcement, quickly echoed by Sam Altman, highlighted competitive and safety pressures amid concerns over frontier large language model capabilities. Google, Microsoft, Meta, and xAI have not matched these commitments, reflected in their low 20-23% market-implied probabilities. Over 100 AI researchers, including Geoffrey Hinton, have since issued a letter demanding stronger protections for evaluator independence, transparency, and retaliation safeguards to make such oversight credible. With the October 31 deadline approaching, traders are watching for further executive statements, California regulatory follow-through, or industry standards initiatives that could shift other labs’ positions.
On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$57,785終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 4:59 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent pledges by Anthropic and OpenAI to embed independent third-party evaluators with ongoing, employee-level access to AI models and training processes have set the benchmark for this market. Dario Amodei’s September 12 announcement, quickly echoed by Sam Altman, highlighted competitive and safety pressures amid concerns over frontier large language model capabilities. Google, Microsoft, Meta, and xAI have not matched these commitments, reflected in their low 20-23% market-implied probabilities. Over 100 AI researchers, including Geoffrey Hinton, have since issued a letter demanding stronger protections for evaluator independence, transparency, and retaliation safeguards to make such oversight credible. With the October 31 deadline approaching, traders are watching for further executive statements, California regulatory follow-through, or industry standards initiatives that could shift other labs’ positions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問