Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
$118,211 Vol.
2026/04/30
ドナルド・トランプ
5%
J.D.バンス
76%
マルコ・ルビオ
9%
ジャレッド・クシュナー
80%
スティーブ・ウィットコフ
82%
$118,211 Vol.
ドナルド・トランプ
$98,345 Vol.
5%
J.D.バンス
$7,880 Vol.
76%
マルコ・ルビオ
$5,450 Vol.
9%
ジャレッド・クシュナー
$2,507 Vol.
80%
スティーブ・ウィットコフ
$4,028 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
音量
$118,211終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$118,211終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問