US Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and advisor Jared Kushner led a US delegation in direct talks with Iranian officials—including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—in Islamabad on April 11, hosted by Pakistan amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz tensions. The 21-hour session yielded no deal, prompting diplomats to arrange a second round, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres calling resumption "highly probable" following his recent regional consultations. Trader consensus reflects these envoys' established roles in backchannel diplomacy, positioning them as likely for further meetings before the April 30 cutoff, though escalation risks or Iranian parliamentary pushback could shift dynamics. No confirmed dates for follow-ups, but Pakistan's mediation continues.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
$97,985 Vol.
2026/04/30
Donald Trump
7%
J.D. Vance
76%
Marco Rubio
13%
Jared Kushner
73%
Steve Witkoff
82%
$97,985 Vol.
Donald Trump
$85,020 Vol.
7%
J.D. Vance
$4,967 Vol.
76%
Marco Rubio
$3,685 Vol.
13%
Jared Kushner
$1,225 Vol.
73%
Steve Witkoff
$3,216 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and advisor Jared Kushner led a US delegation in direct talks with Iranian officials—including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—in Islamabad on April 11, hosted by Pakistan amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz tensions. The 21-hour session yielded no deal, prompting diplomats to arrange a second round, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres calling resumption "highly probable" following his recent regional consultations. Trader consensus reflects these envoys' established roles in backchannel diplomacy, positioning them as likely for further meetings before the April 30 cutoff, though escalation risks or Iranian parliamentary pushback could shift dynamics. No confirmed dates for follow-ups, but Pakistan's mediation continues.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
音量
$97,985終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and advisor Jared Kushner led a US delegation in direct talks with Iranian officials—including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—in Islamabad on April 11, hosted by Pakistan amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz tensions. The 21-hour session yielded no deal, prompting diplomats to arrange a second round, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres calling resumption "highly probable" following his recent regional consultations. Trader consensus reflects these envoys' established roles in backchannel diplomacy, positioning them as likely for further meetings before the April 30 cutoff, though escalation risks or Iranian parliamentary pushback could shift dynamics. No confirmed dates for follow-ups, but Pakistan's mediation continues.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$97,985終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and advisor Jared Kushner led a US delegation in direct talks with Iranian officials—including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—in Islamabad on April 11, hosted by Pakistan amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz tensions. The 21-hour session yielded no deal, prompting diplomats to arrange a second round, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres calling resumption "highly probable" following his recent regional consultations. Trader consensus reflects these envoys' established roles in backchannel diplomacy, positioning them as likely for further meetings before the April 30 cutoff, though escalation risks or Iranian parliamentary pushback could shift dynamics. No confirmed dates for follow-ups, but Pakistan's mediation continues.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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