Pakistan's Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Tehran on April 15, delivering a new U.S. message to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi amid urgent efforts to schedule a second round of direct U.S.-Iran talks before the April 22 ceasefire deadline. The first Islamabad negotiations on April 10-12, hosted by Pakistan, featured U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner meeting Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Araghchi, but ended inconclusively with terse statements. Traders price Witkoff at 87% implied probability to meet Iranian officials again by April 30, reflecting his role as lead negotiator on nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, bolstered by ongoing mediation and White House signals for de-escalation. A French-led Élysée conference on April 17 could influence dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
$102,398 Vol.
2026/04/30
ドナルド・トランプ
7%
J.D.バンス
75%
マルコ・ルビオ
7%
ジャレッド・クシュナー
73%
スティーブ・ウィットコフ
82%
$102,398 Vol.
ドナルド・トランプ
$85,476 Vol.
7%
J.D.バンス
$7,324 Vol.
75%
マルコ・ルビオ
$5,072 Vol.
7%
ジャレッド・クシュナー
$1,283 Vol.
73%
スティーブ・ウィットコフ
$3,242 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Pakistan's Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Tehran on April 15, delivering a new U.S. message to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi amid urgent efforts to schedule a second round of direct U.S.-Iran talks before the April 22 ceasefire deadline. The first Islamabad negotiations on April 10-12, hosted by Pakistan, featured U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner meeting Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Araghchi, but ended inconclusively with terse statements. Traders price Witkoff at 87% implied probability to meet Iranian officials again by April 30, reflecting his role as lead negotiator on nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, bolstered by ongoing mediation and White House signals for de-escalation. A French-led Élysée conference on April 17 could influence dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
音量
$102,398終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Pakistan's Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Tehran on April 15, delivering a new U.S. message to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi amid urgent efforts to schedule a second round of direct U.S.-Iran talks before the April 22 ceasefire deadline. The first Islamabad negotiations on April 10-12, hosted by Pakistan, featured U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner meeting Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Araghchi, but ended inconclusively with terse statements. Traders price Witkoff at 87% implied probability to meet Iranian officials again by April 30, reflecting his role as lead negotiator on nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, bolstered by ongoing mediation and White House signals for de-escalation. A French-led Élysée conference on April 17 could influence dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$102,398終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pakistan's Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Tehran on April 15, delivering a new U.S. message to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi amid urgent efforts to schedule a second round of direct U.S.-Iran talks before the April 22 ceasefire deadline. The first Islamabad negotiations on April 10-12, hosted by Pakistan, featured U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner meeting Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Araghchi, but ended inconclusively with terse statements. Traders price Witkoff at 87% implied probability to meet Iranian officials again by April 30, reflecting his role as lead negotiator on nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, bolstered by ongoing mediation and White House signals for de-escalation. A French-led Élysée conference on April 17 could influence dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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