Anthropic's confidential SEC filing on June 1 and active preparations for an October Nasdaq listing at up to a $2 trillion valuation have anchored trader consensus around a 94% implied probability that it reaches public markets first. OpenAI's June 8 filing has been followed by CEO Sam Altman's explicit statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing the need to prioritize large language model safety, alignment work, and industry coordination amid recent capability demonstrations and testing incidents. This timeline gap reflects Anthropic's stronger near-term revenue trajectory and operational readiness relative to OpenAI's extended private-company focus. Unexpected regulatory shifts, further AI safety developments, or Anthropic filing delays could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日AnthropicまたはOpenAIが最初にIPOしますか？
AnthropicまたはOpenAIが最初にIPOしますか？
Anthropic
94% 確率
$366,813 Vol.
$366,813 Vol.
2027/12/30
Anthropic
94% 確率
$366,813 Vol.
$366,813 Vol.
2027/12/30
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's confidential SEC filing on June 1 and active preparations for an October Nasdaq listing at up to a $2 trillion valuation have anchored trader consensus around a 94% implied probability that it reaches public markets first. OpenAI's June 8 filing has been followed by CEO Sam Altman's explicit statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing the need to prioritize large language model safety, alignment work, and industry coordination amid recent capability demonstrations and testing incidents. This timeline gap reflects Anthropic's stronger near-term revenue trajectory and operational readiness relative to OpenAI's extended private-company focus. Unexpected regulatory shifts, further AI safety developments, or Anthropic filing delays could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
音量
$366,813終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's confidential SEC filing on June 1 and active preparations for an October Nasdaq listing at up to a $2 trillion valuation have anchored trader consensus around a 94% implied probability that it reaches public markets first. OpenAI's June 8 filing has been followed by CEO Sam Altman's explicit statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing the need to prioritize large language model safety, alignment work, and industry coordination amid recent capability demonstrations and testing incidents. This timeline gap reflects Anthropic's stronger near-term revenue trajectory and operational readiness relative to OpenAI's extended private-company focus. Unexpected regulatory shifts, further AI safety developments, or Anthropic filing delays could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$366,813終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's confidential SEC filing on June 1 and active preparations for an October Nasdaq listing at up to a $2 trillion valuation have anchored trader consensus around a 94% implied probability that it reaches public markets first. OpenAI's June 8 filing has been followed by CEO Sam Altman's explicit statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing the need to prioritize large language model safety, alignment work, and industry coordination amid recent capability demonstrations and testing incidents. This timeline gap reflects Anthropic's stronger near-term revenue trajectory and operational readiness relative to OpenAI's extended private-company focus. Unexpected regulatory shifts, further AI safety developments, or Anthropic filing delays could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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