Anthropic’s confidential submission of a draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC on June 1 has positioned the Claude large language model developer ahead in the race, driving the 76.5% market-implied probability it reaches public markets first. The filing, which follows months of banker discussions, allows the company to complete SEC review and potentially price an offering as early as fall 2026 depending on market conditions. OpenAI, by contrast, continues preparing its own confidential filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley after May reports indicated a possible September timeline, but has not yet submitted paperwork. Traders are weighting Anthropic’s concrete regulatory step and slightly earlier preparation momentum more heavily than OpenAI’s larger scale and revenue base, while recognizing that either firm’s final pricing window could still shift with SEC feedback or broader equity market volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic
$99,651 Vol.
$99,651 Vol.
2027/12/31
Anthropic
$99,651 Vol.
$99,651 Vol.
2027/12/31
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential submission of a draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC on June 1 has positioned the Claude large language model developer ahead in the race, driving the 76.5% market-implied probability it reaches public markets first. The filing, which follows months of banker discussions, allows the company to complete SEC review and potentially price an offering as early as fall 2026 depending on market conditions. OpenAI, by contrast, continues preparing its own confidential filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley after May reports indicated a possible September timeline, but has not yet submitted paperwork. Traders are weighting Anthropic’s concrete regulatory step and slightly earlier preparation momentum more heavily than OpenAI’s larger scale and revenue base, while recognizing that either firm’s final pricing window could still shift with SEC feedback or broader equity market volatility.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
音量
$99,651終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential submission of a draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC on June 1 has positioned the Claude large language model developer ahead in the race, driving the 76.5% market-implied probability it reaches public markets first. The filing, which follows months of banker discussions, allows the company to complete SEC review and potentially price an offering as early as fall 2026 depending on market conditions. OpenAI, by contrast, continues preparing its own confidential filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley after May reports indicated a possible September timeline, but has not yet submitted paperwork. Traders are weighting Anthropic’s concrete regulatory step and slightly earlier preparation momentum more heavily than OpenAI’s larger scale and revenue base, while recognizing that either firm’s final pricing window could still shift with SEC feedback or broader equity market volatility.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$99,651終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s confidential submission of a draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC on June 1 has positioned the Claude large language model developer ahead in the race, driving the 76.5% market-implied probability it reaches public markets first. The filing, which follows months of banker discussions, allows the company to complete SEC review and potentially price an offering as early as fall 2026 depending on market conditions. OpenAI, by contrast, continues preparing its own confidential filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley after May reports indicated a possible September timeline, but has not yet submitted paperwork. Traders are weighting Anthropic’s concrete regulatory step and slightly earlier preparation momentum more heavily than OpenAI’s larger scale and revenue base, while recognizing that either firm’s final pricing window could still shift with SEC feedback or broader equity market volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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