U.S. officials clarified on March 31 that Colombian President Gustavo Petro faces no criminal charges despite early-stage Justice Department probes in New York into alleged 2022 campaign ties to drug traffickers, prompting traders to price "No" at 96% implied probability ahead of the April 30 deadline. DEA records cite informant tips on possible meetings and bribes related to extraditions, but no formal indictment has emerged in the three weeks since, reflecting procedural hurdles like evidence verification and grand jury review. Charging a sitting foreign head of state carries exceptional diplomatic barriers, bolstering trader consensus. Late-breaking evidence, such as cooperating witnesses, could shift odds, though time constraints limit feasibility.