**Macron has shown no signs of issuing a presidential decree to convene a nationwide referendum by December 31, 2026.** Recent developments reinforce trader expectations of inaction. After the Constitutional Council struck down the under-15 social media ban in mid-August 2026, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare revised legislation for parliamentary consideration rather than pursue a direct popular vote. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal publicly urged a referendum on the issue, but the Élysée opted for the standard legislative route with implementation targeted for spring 2027. The assisted-dying law, another major social reform, advanced through parliament and received presidential signature without referendum procedures. Macron’s second term has featured repeated discussions of referendums on institutional or economic matters since 2025, yet none materialized amid parliamentary fragmentation. With the presidential election scheduled for April–May 2027 and municipal elections in March 2026, the pre-electoral calendar further reduces incentives for a late-2026 popular consultation. Resolution requires an official decree published in the Journal officiel under Article 11 or related provisions; current patterns and priorities point to continued reliance on parliamentary processes instead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
はい
7% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Macron has shown no signs of issuing a presidential decree to convene a nationwide referendum by December 31, 2026.**
Recent developments reinforce trader expectations of inaction. After the Constitutional Council struck down the under-15 social media ban in mid-August 2026, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare revised legislation for parliamentary consideration rather than pursue a direct popular vote. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal publicly urged a referendum on the issue, but the Élysée opted for the standard legislative route with implementation targeted for spring 2027.
The assisted-dying law, another major social reform, advanced through parliament and received presidential signature without referendum procedures. Macron’s second term has featured repeated discussions of referendums on institutional or economic matters since 2025, yet none materialized amid parliamentary fragmentation. With the presidential election scheduled for April–May 2027 and municipal elections in March 2026, the pre-electoral calendar further reduces incentives for a late-2026 popular consultation.
Resolution requires an official decree published in the Journal officiel under Article 11 or related provisions; current patterns and priorities point to continued reliance on parliamentary processes instead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Macron has shown no signs of issuing a presidential decree to convene a nationwide referendum by December 31, 2026.**
Recent developments reinforce trader expectations of inaction. After the Constitutional Council struck down the under-15 social media ban in mid-August 2026, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare revised legislation for parliamentary consideration rather than pursue a direct popular vote. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal publicly urged a referendum on the issue, but the Élysée opted for the standard legislative route with implementation targeted for spring 2027.
The assisted-dying law, another major social reform, advanced through parliament and received presidential signature without referendum procedures. Macron’s second term has featured repeated discussions of referendums on institutional or economic matters since 2025, yet none materialized amid parliamentary fragmentation. With the presidential election scheduled for April–May 2027 and municipal elections in March 2026, the pre-electoral calendar further reduces incentives for a late-2026 popular consultation.
Resolution requires an official decree published in the Journal officiel under Article 11 or related provisions; current patterns and priorities point to continued reliance on parliamentary processes instead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Macron has shown no signs of issuing a presidential decree to convene a nationwide referendum by December 31, 2026.** Recent developments reinforce trader expectations of inaction. After the Constitutional Council struck down the under-15 social media ban in mid-August 2026, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare revised legislation for parliamentary consideration rather than pursue a direct popular vote. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal publicly urged a referendum on the issue, but the Élysée opted for the standard legislative route with implementation targeted for spring 2027. The assisted-dying law, another major social reform, advanced through parliament and received presidential signature without referendum procedures. Macron’s second term has featured repeated discussions of referendums on institutional or economic matters since 2025, yet none materialized amid parliamentary fragmentation. With the presidential election scheduled for April–May 2027 and municipal elections in March 2026, the pre-electoral calendar further reduces incentives for a late-2026 popular consultation. Resolution requires an official decree published in the Journal officiel under Article 11 or related provisions; current patterns and priorities point to continued reliance on parliamentary processes instead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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