Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict since February 2026 has centered on airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval pressures around the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations. Recent developments include President Trump's cancellation of planned strikes in early August amid mediator-backed frameworks for reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program, alongside continued but limited U.S. retaliatory actions. Analysts highlight logistical barriers to any full-scale invasion of Iran's terrain and note U.S. preference for air and sea power, with no mobilization of conventional ground forces. Trader consensus at 79.5% for no invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of targeted strikes, diplomatic maneuvering, and absence of escalation signals toward occupation within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$54,777,509 Vol.
$54,777,509 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$54,777,509 Vol.
$54,777,509 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict since February 2026 has centered on airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval pressures around the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations. Recent developments include President Trump's cancellation of planned strikes in early August amid mediator-backed frameworks for reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program, alongside continued but limited U.S. retaliatory actions. Analysts highlight logistical barriers to any full-scale invasion of Iran's terrain and note U.S. preference for air and sea power, with no mobilization of conventional ground forces. Trader consensus at 79.5% for no invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of targeted strikes, diplomatic maneuvering, and absence of escalation signals toward occupation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$54,777,509終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict since February 2026 has centered on airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval pressures around the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations. Recent developments include President Trump's cancellation of planned strikes in early August amid mediator-backed frameworks for reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program, alongside continued but limited U.S. retaliatory actions. Analysts highlight logistical barriers to any full-scale invasion of Iran's terrain and note U.S. preference for air and sea power, with no mobilization of conventional ground forces. Trader consensus at 79.5% for no invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of targeted strikes, diplomatic maneuvering, and absence of escalation signals toward occupation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$54,777,509終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict since February 2026 has centered on airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval pressures around the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations. Recent developments include President Trump's cancellation of planned strikes in early August amid mediator-backed frameworks for reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program, alongside continued but limited U.S. retaliatory actions. Analysts highlight logistical barriers to any full-scale invasion of Iran's terrain and note U.S. preference for air and sea power, with no mobilization of conventional ground forces. Trader consensus at 79.5% for no invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of targeted strikes, diplomatic maneuvering, and absence of escalation signals toward occupation within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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