Recent U.S. military operations against Iran have centered on targeted airstrikes and naval responses rather than any ground invasion, particularly after July 2026 escalations over ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz prompted renewed U.S. strikes on coastal and infrastructure targets. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding, signed by President Trump and Iranian officials, established a framework to end broader conflict and reopen the strait, though sporadic Iranian threats and U.S. self-defense actions have continued without crossing into large-scale troop deployments. Trump administration statements have repeatedly signaled reluctance for a ground campaign, citing alternatives and strategic limits, while diplomatic channels remain active. These patterns of contained kinetic measures, combined with institutional and congressional constraints on escalation, underpin trader consensus that full U.S. invasion remains unlikely before 2027.