Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since early 2026, including strikes and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have not escalated to a ground invasion, with recent diplomatic signals instead favoring de-escalation. President Trump’s August 2026 statements canceling planned attacks contingent on a rapid nuclear deal and Hormuz reopening align with multi-round talks that produced a June memorandum and technical sessions through late June. These developments, alongside Iranian denials of requesting pauses yet remaining open to IAEA cooperation, reflect trader consensus that sustained negotiations and allied pressure for dialogue reduce the near-term likelihood of full-scale invasion before 2027. Scheduled diplomatic timelines and historical patterns of U.S. restraint absent broader coalition support further anchor the elevated “No” probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$54,760,176 Vol.
$54,760,176 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$54,760,176 Vol.
$54,760,176 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since early 2026, including strikes and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have not escalated to a ground invasion, with recent diplomatic signals instead favoring de-escalation. President Trump’s August 2026 statements canceling planned attacks contingent on a rapid nuclear deal and Hormuz reopening align with multi-round talks that produced a June memorandum and technical sessions through late June. These developments, alongside Iranian denials of requesting pauses yet remaining open to IAEA cooperation, reflect trader consensus that sustained negotiations and allied pressure for dialogue reduce the near-term likelihood of full-scale invasion before 2027. Scheduled diplomatic timelines and historical patterns of U.S. restraint absent broader coalition support further anchor the elevated “No” probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$54,760,176終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since early 2026, including strikes and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have not escalated to a ground invasion, with recent diplomatic signals instead favoring de-escalation. President Trump’s August 2026 statements canceling planned attacks contingent on a rapid nuclear deal and Hormuz reopening align with multi-round talks that produced a June memorandum and technical sessions through late June. These developments, alongside Iranian denials of requesting pauses yet remaining open to IAEA cooperation, reflect trader consensus that sustained negotiations and allied pressure for dialogue reduce the near-term likelihood of full-scale invasion before 2027. Scheduled diplomatic timelines and historical patterns of U.S. restraint absent broader coalition support further anchor the elevated “No” probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$54,760,176終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since early 2026, including strikes and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have not escalated to a ground invasion, with recent diplomatic signals instead favoring de-escalation. President Trump’s August 2026 statements canceling planned attacks contingent on a rapid nuclear deal and Hormuz reopening align with multi-round talks that produced a June memorandum and technical sessions through late June. These developments, alongside Iranian denials of requesting pauses yet remaining open to IAEA cooperation, reflect trader consensus that sustained negotiations and allied pressure for dialogue reduce the near-term likelihood of full-scale invasion before 2027. Scheduled diplomatic timelines and historical patterns of U.S. restraint absent broader coalition support further anchor the elevated “No” probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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