Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy at the UN General Assembly, including mediated shuttle talks on September 22-23 between Iranian officials and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has centered on ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran's nuclear program. These efforts follow months of strikes, a collapsed June ceasefire, and a naval blockade amid the broader conflict that began in February. President Trump has threatened annihilation without a deal yet voiced optimism for progress after November elections, while Iran has tied any agreement to sanctions relief and de-escalation. Such developments reinforce trader consensus against a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027, favoring negotiated outcomes over immediate escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
14% 確率
$68,564,586 Vol.
$68,564,586 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
14% 確率
$68,564,586 Vol.
$68,564,586 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy at the UN General Assembly, including mediated shuttle talks on September 22-23 between Iranian officials and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has centered on ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran's nuclear program. These efforts follow months of strikes, a collapsed June ceasefire, and a naval blockade amid the broader conflict that began in February. President Trump has threatened annihilation without a deal yet voiced optimism for progress after November elections, while Iran has tied any agreement to sanctions relief and de-escalation. Such developments reinforce trader consensus against a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027, favoring negotiated outcomes over immediate escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$68,564,586終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy at the UN General Assembly, including mediated shuttle talks on September 22-23 between Iranian officials and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has centered on ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran's nuclear program. These efforts follow months of strikes, a collapsed June ceasefire, and a naval blockade amid the broader conflict that began in February. President Trump has threatened annihilation without a deal yet voiced optimism for progress after November elections, while Iran has tied any agreement to sanctions relief and de-escalation. Such developments reinforce trader consensus against a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027, favoring negotiated outcomes over immediate escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$0終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy at the UN General Assembly, including mediated shuttle talks on September 22-23 between Iranian officials and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has centered on ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran's nuclear program. These efforts follow months of strikes, a collapsed June ceasefire, and a naval blockade amid the broader conflict that began in February. President Trump has threatened annihilation without a deal yet voiced optimism for progress after November elections, while Iran has tied any agreement to sanctions relief and de-escalation. Such developments reinforce trader consensus against a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027, favoring negotiated outcomes over immediate escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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