US intelligence agencies' March 2026 annual threat assessment concluded that China is unlikely to launch a military invasion of Taiwan before 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing coercive efforts like PLA air and naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait. This assessment, echoed in ODNI reports, has anchored trader consensus at an 89.5% implied probability for no clash, reflecting the absence of invasion preparations despite routine gray-zone tactics such as recent warship incursions reported by Taiwan on April 10. A US diplomat's April 12 call for China to abandon threats further signals diplomatic de-escalation, though global conflicts could shift dynamics; traders weigh high barriers including economic interdependence and US deterrence against low-probability escalation risks through 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,633,252 거래량
$1,633,252 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$1,633,252 거래량
$1,633,252 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence agencies' March 2026 annual threat assessment concluded that China is unlikely to launch a military invasion of Taiwan before 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing coercive efforts like PLA air and naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait. This assessment, echoed in ODNI reports, has anchored trader consensus at an 89.5% implied probability for no clash, reflecting the absence of invasion preparations despite routine gray-zone tactics such as recent warship incursions reported by Taiwan on April 10. A US diplomat's April 12 call for China to abandon threats further signals diplomatic de-escalation, though global conflicts could shift dynamics; traders weigh high barriers including economic interdependence and US deterrence against low-probability escalation risks through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
거래량
$1,633,252종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence agencies' March 2026 annual threat assessment concluded that China is unlikely to launch a military invasion of Taiwan before 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing coercive efforts like PLA air and naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait. This assessment, echoed in ODNI reports, has anchored trader consensus at an 89.5% implied probability for no clash, reflecting the absence of invasion preparations despite routine gray-zone tactics such as recent warship incursions reported by Taiwan on April 10. A US diplomat's April 12 call for China to abandon threats further signals diplomatic de-escalation, though global conflicts could shift dynamics; traders weigh high barriers including economic interdependence and US deterrence against low-probability escalation risks through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,633,252종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence agencies' March 2026 annual threat assessment concluded that China is unlikely to launch a military invasion of Taiwan before 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing coercive efforts like PLA air and naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait. This assessment, echoed in ODNI reports, has anchored trader consensus at an 89.5% implied probability for no clash, reflecting the absence of invasion preparations despite routine gray-zone tactics such as recent warship incursions reported by Taiwan on April 10. A US diplomat's April 12 call for China to abandon threats further signals diplomatic de-escalation, though global conflicts could shift dynamics; traders weigh high barriers including economic interdependence and US deterrence against low-probability escalation risks through 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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