Spain's status as recent European champions and FIFA world number two drives their overwhelming 81.5% implied probability as Group H winners, bolstered by a fully fit squad including Rodri, Lamine Yamal, and Álvaro Morata, who trained without restrictions in their New York base as of April 15 amid intense 11v-11 simulations under Luis de la Fuente. Uruguay holds steady at 15.5% on Marcelo Bielsa's high-pressing evolution and Darwin Núñez's qualifier dominance, with no injuries post-travel and recent draws like 1-1 versus England signaling competitiveness against Spain's technical edge. Saudi Arabia's 2.8% reflects Mancini's organized counters and past Argentina upset, while Cape Verde's debutant 1.1% underscores their historic qualification but vast experience gap versus the heavyweights, with all teams reporting clean bills in U.S. prep camps.