Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Ankara on May 3?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 3?
9°C or higher 100.0%
-1°C or below <1%
0°C <1%
1°C <1%
$64,791 거래량
$64,791 거래량
2026.05.03
-1°C or below
No
0°C
No
1°C
No
2°C
No
3°C
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C or higher
Yes
9°C or higher 100.0%
-1°C or below <1%
0°C <1%
1°C <1%
$64,791 거래량
$64,791 거래량
2026.05.03
-1°C or below
$1,940 거래량
No
0°C
$881 거래량
No
1°C
$2,406 거래량
No
2°C
$1,323 거래량
No
3°C
$1,615 거래량
No
4°C
$2,560 거래량
No
5°C
$4,621 거래량
No
6°C
$6,741 거래량
No
7°C
$10,081 거래량
No
8°C
$16,208 거래량
No
9°C or higher
$16,415 거래량
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
거래량
$64,791종료일
2026.05.03마켓 개설일
May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$64,791종료일
2026.05.03마켓 개설일
May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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