Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on April 20, 2026, driven by real-time observational data from Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—and aligned China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a peak of 22–24°C under clear skies with light southerly winds and hazy conditions limiting further intensification. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles corroborated this, showing consensus highs near 24°C amid mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 20–22°C but sees occasional spikes to 25°C from variable ridging. Hourly observations confirmed an early-afternoon peak at 24°C (equivalent to 75°F), with temperatures now dropping into the evening (around 13–15°C). A late-day solar-driven surge or rare CMA measurement revision could challenge this, but upper-air stability and waning insolation make higher outcomes improbable. Official daily records from CMA expected post-midnight.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Beijing on April 20?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 20?
24°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$184,256 거래량
$184,256 거래량
2026.04.20
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$184,256 거래량
$184,256 거래량
2026.04.20
20°C or below
$25,361 거래량
No
21°C
$20,393 거래량
No
22°C
$15,457 거래량
No
23°C
$29,732 거래량
No
24°C
$21,543 거래량
Yes
25°C
$24,949 거래량
No
26°C
$17,761 거래량
No
27°C
$14,137 거래량
No
28°C
$5,051 거래량
No
29°C
$6,563 거래량
No
30°C or higher
$3,309 거래량
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on April 20, 2026, driven by real-time observational data from Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—and aligned China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a peak of 22–24°C under clear skies with light southerly winds and hazy conditions limiting further intensification. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles corroborated this, showing consensus highs near 24°C amid mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 20–22°C but sees occasional spikes to 25°C from variable ridging. Hourly observations confirmed an early-afternoon peak at 24°C (equivalent to 75°F), with temperatures now dropping into the evening (around 13–15°C). A late-day solar-driven surge or rare CMA measurement revision could challenge this, but upper-air stability and waning insolation make higher outcomes improbable. Official daily records from CMA expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
거래량
$184,256종료일
2026.04.20마켓 개설일
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on April 20, 2026, driven by real-time observational data from Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—and aligned China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a peak of 22–24°C under clear skies with light southerly winds and hazy conditions limiting further intensification. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles corroborated this, showing consensus highs near 24°C amid mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 20–22°C but sees occasional spikes to 25°C from variable ridging. Hourly observations confirmed an early-afternoon peak at 24°C (equivalent to 75°F), with temperatures now dropping into the evening (around 13–15°C). A late-day solar-driven surge or rare CMA measurement revision could challenge this, but upper-air stability and waning insolation make higher outcomes improbable. Official daily records from CMA expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$184,256종료일
2026.04.20마켓 개설일
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on April 20, 2026, driven by real-time observational data from Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—and aligned China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a peak of 22–24°C under clear skies with light southerly winds and hazy conditions limiting further intensification. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles corroborated this, showing consensus highs near 24°C amid mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 20–22°C but sees occasional spikes to 25°C from variable ridging. Hourly observations confirmed an early-afternoon peak at 24°C (equivalent to 75°F), with temperatures now dropping into the evening (around 13–15°C). A late-day solar-driven surge or rare CMA measurement revision could challenge this, but upper-air stability and waning insolation make higher outcomes improbable. Official daily records from CMA expected post-midnight.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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