Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Beijing on May 8?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 8?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$105,277 거래량
$105,277 거래량
2026.05.08
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$105,277 거래량
$105,277 거래량
2026.05.08
23°C or below
$6,822 거래량
No
24°C
$6,487 거래량
No
25°C
$7,863 거래량
No
26°C
$15,366 거래량
No
27°C
$12,807 거래량
No
28°C
$16,938 거래량
Yes
29°C
$15,876 거래량
No
30°C
$9,951 거래량
No
31°C
$4,737 거래량
No
32°C
$4,170 거래량
No
33°C or higher
$4,261 거래량
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 6, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
거래량
$105,277종료일
2026.05.08마켓 개설일
May 6, 2026, 12:21 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$105,277종료일
2026.05.08마켓 개설일
May 6, 2026, 12:21 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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