Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Madrid on June 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 23?
41°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$107,795 거래량
$107,795 거래량
2026.06.23
36°C or below
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
Yes
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C or higher
No
41°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$107,795 거래량
$107,795 거래량
2026.06.23
36°C or below
$446 거래량
No
37°C
$2,814 거래량
No
38°C
$10,114 거래량
No
39°C
$23,679 거래량
No
40°C
$26,166 거래량
No
41°C
$15,024 거래량
Yes
42°C
$12,824 거래량
No
43°C
$7,517 거래량
No
44°C
$6,817 거래량
No
45°C
$1,980 거래량
No
46°C or higher
$413 거래량
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
거래량
$107,795종료일
2026.06.23마켓 개설일
Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
거래량
$107,795종료일
2026.06.23마켓 개설일
Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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