Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$175,677 거래량
$175,677 거래량
2026.05.01
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$175,677 거래량
$175,677 거래량
2026.05.01
19°C or below
$5,396 거래량
No
20°C
$4,274 거래량
No
21°C
$8,572 거래량
No
22°C
$22,531 거래량
No
23°C
$23,331 거래량
No
24°C
$30,999 거래량
No
25°C
$21,867 거래량
Yes
26°C
$23,097 거래량
No
27°C
$13,987 거래량
No
28°C
$10,944 거래량
No
29°C or higher
$10,677 거래량
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
거래량
$175,677종료일
2026.05.01마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$175,677종료일
2026.05.01마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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