The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest short-range forecasts project a maximum temperature of 22°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's official resolution point—under a stable high-pressure ridge delivering mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes. This aligns with trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 21°C or higher, bolstered by above-average late-April highs around 23°C, enhanced solar insolation, and urban heat island effects amplifying peak heating in early afternoon hours. Historical early-May climatology averages 21°C highs, reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud buildup or showers (20-30% odds) suppressing temperatures below 21°C, though current model ensembles show strong agreement; monitor AMEDAS observations through evening for final confirmation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 1?
21°C or higher 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$162,934 거래량
$162,934 거래량
2026.05.01
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
Yes
21°C or higher 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$162,934 거래량
$162,934 거래량
2026.05.01
11°C or below
$1,260 거래량
No
12°C
$541 거래량
No
13°C
$204 거래량
No
14°C
$6,950 거래량
No
15°C
$9,977 거래량
No
16°C
$15,035 거래량
No
17°C
$22,080 거래량
No
18°C
$16,936 거래량
No
19°C
$13,527 거래량
No
20°C
$17,258 거래량
No
21°C or higher
$59,167 거래량
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest short-range forecasts project a maximum temperature of 22°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's official resolution point—under a stable high-pressure ridge delivering mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes. This aligns with trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 21°C or higher, bolstered by above-average late-April highs around 23°C, enhanced solar insolation, and urban heat island effects amplifying peak heating in early afternoon hours. Historical early-May climatology averages 21°C highs, reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud buildup or showers (20-30% odds) suppressing temperatures below 21°C, though current model ensembles show strong agreement; monitor AMEDAS observations through evening for final confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
거래량
$162,934종료일
2026.05.01마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest short-range forecasts project a maximum temperature of 22°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's official resolution point—under a stable high-pressure ridge delivering mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes. This aligns with trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 21°C or higher, bolstered by above-average late-April highs around 23°C, enhanced solar insolation, and urban heat island effects amplifying peak heating in early afternoon hours. Historical early-May climatology averages 21°C highs, reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud buildup or showers (20-30% odds) suppressing temperatures below 21°C, though current model ensembles show strong agreement; monitor AMEDAS observations through evening for final confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$162,934종료일
2026.05.01마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest short-range forecasts project a maximum temperature of 22°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's official resolution point—under a stable high-pressure ridge delivering mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes. This aligns with trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 21°C or higher, bolstered by above-average late-April highs around 23°C, enhanced solar insolation, and urban heat island effects amplifying peak heating in early afternoon hours. Historical early-May climatology averages 21°C highs, reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud buildup or showers (20-30% odds) suppressing temperatures below 21°C, though current model ensembles show strong agreement; monitor AMEDAS observations through evening for final confirmation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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