Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 on facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan destroyed much of Iran’s installed centrifuge capacity and enrichment infrastructure, with follow-on operations through early 2026 targeting weaponization sites. U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026 indicate that, even if Tehran decided to weaponize immediately, the timeline remains nine to twelve months owing to inaccessible highly enriched uranium stockpiles, halted enrichment activity, and limited IAEA inspection access since the initial strikes. No reconstruction of enrichment cascades has been detected, and Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus reflected in the current odds that acquisition of a nuclear device before 2027 remains unlikely absent major undetected recovery efforts.