Recent developments in the equatorial Pacific, where ENSO-neutral conditions persist alongside rapid subsurface warming and weekly Niño-3.4 anomalies approaching El Niño thresholds, underpin the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.15–1.29°C for June 2026 global temperature anomalies. Official outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicate an 82% chance of El Niño emerging during May–July 2026, which would amplify the background ~1.5°C of anthropogenic warming already observed this year. Model consensus on onset timing and initial strength remains moderate, with divergence in how quickly Pacific sea-surface temperatures translate to global means. The next ENSO diagnostic update on 11 June will provide key observational data that could refine these probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
<1.10ºC 27%
신규
신규
2026.06.30
<1.10ºC
27%
1.10–1.14ºC
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
40%
>1.29ºC
40%
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
<1.10ºC 27%
신규
신규
2026.06.30
<1.10ºC
$5 거래량
27%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 거래량
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 거래량
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 거래량
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 거래량
40%
>1.29ºC
$2 거래량
40%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent developments in the equatorial Pacific, where ENSO-neutral conditions persist alongside rapid subsurface warming and weekly Niño-3.4 anomalies approaching El Niño thresholds, underpin the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.15–1.29°C for June 2026 global temperature anomalies. Official outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicate an 82% chance of El Niño emerging during May–July 2026, which would amplify the background ~1.5°C of anthropogenic warming already observed this year. Model consensus on onset timing and initial strength remains moderate, with divergence in how quickly Pacific sea-surface temperatures translate to global means. The next ENSO diagnostic update on 11 June will provide key observational data that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
마켓 개설일: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
거래량
$178종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent developments in the equatorial Pacific, where ENSO-neutral conditions persist alongside rapid subsurface warming and weekly Niño-3.4 anomalies approaching El Niño thresholds, underpin the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.15–1.29°C for June 2026 global temperature anomalies. Official outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicate an 82% chance of El Niño emerging during May–July 2026, which would amplify the background ~1.5°C of anthropogenic warming already observed this year. Model consensus on onset timing and initial strength remains moderate, with divergence in how quickly Pacific sea-surface temperatures translate to global means. The next ENSO diagnostic update on 11 June will provide key observational data that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
거래량
$178종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments in the equatorial Pacific, where ENSO-neutral conditions persist alongside rapid subsurface warming and weekly Niño-3.4 anomalies approaching El Niño thresholds, underpin the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.15–1.29°C for June 2026 global temperature anomalies. Official outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicate an 82% chance of El Niño emerging during May–July 2026, which would amplify the background ~1.5°C of anthropogenic warming already observed this year. Model consensus on onset timing and initial strength remains moderate, with divergence in how quickly Pacific sea-surface temperatures translate to global means. The next ENSO diagnostic update on 11 June will provide key observational data that could refine these probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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