Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93% implied probability to no new coronavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the absence of any novel coronavirus—distinct from SARS-CoV-2—triggering widespread human-to-human transmission or a World Health Organization public health emergency declaration through early April. CDC and WHO surveillance data confirm only ongoing SARS-CoV-2 variants like BA.3.2 circulating at low levels, with U.S. test positivity at 1.8% and no epidemic growth signals as of April 7. Global wastewater monitoring and genomic sequencing detect no emerging zoonotic threats from animal reservoirs, reflecting enhanced post-COVID preparedness despite U.S. WHO withdrawal in January. Realistic challenges include undetected spillover from bats or labs sparking rapid clusters, though historical rarity and vigilant networks temper such risks; watch weekly CDC updates and WHO dashboards for shifts.