Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93% implied probability to "No" for a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the World Health Organization's lack of any declaration of a novel coronavirus outbreak—distinct from SARS-CoV-2—escalating to pandemic status since early January. CDC surveillance as of April 7 shows COVID-19 infections declining or stable in 38 states, with national respiratory illness activity at very low levels per April 10 updates and wastewater monitoring confirming minimal viral circulation. WHO's Disease Outbreak News reports no qualifying events, bolstered by enhanced global preparedness post-2020. Realistic challenges include undetected zoonotic spillovers, such as canine coronavirus HuPn-2018, prompting rapid transmission and WHO action before December 31; ongoing agency briefings will clarify risks.