Trader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at end-2026 reflects a closely contested range centered on 7,000–8,000, with the top three bins each commanding 19–23.5% implied probability amid uncertainty over sustained earnings growth and monetary policy. Recent economic data releases, including inflation readings and labor market indicators, have reinforced expectations for steady but moderating expansion, while Fed communications continue to shape rate-path projections that influence equity valuations. Corporate earnings trends and sector performance provide supporting context, yet volatility measures and Treasury yield movements highlight downside risks from potential policy shifts or geopolitical factors. With probabilities tightly bunched, upcoming data releases and central bank meetings remain key swing elements that could reprice the distribution before year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$7,000-$7,500 23%
$7,500~$8,000 22%
8,000달러 이상 19%
$6,500-$7,000 16%
$28,608 거래량
$28,608 거래량
2026.12.31
$6,000 미만
12%
$6,000~$6,500
7%
$6,500-$7,000
16%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500~$8,000
22%
8,000달러 이상
19%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$7,500~$8,000 22%
8,000달러 이상 19%
$6,500-$7,000 16%
$28,608 거래량
$28,608 거래량
2026.12.31
$6,000 미만
$16,283 거래량
12%
$6,000~$6,500
$1,760 거래량
7%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,987 거래량
16%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,570 거래량
23%
$7,500~$8,000
$2,963 거래량
22%
8,000달러 이상
$3,045 거래량
19%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at end-2026 reflects a closely contested range centered on 7,000–8,000, with the top three bins each commanding 19–23.5% implied probability amid uncertainty over sustained earnings growth and monetary policy. Recent economic data releases, including inflation readings and labor market indicators, have reinforced expectations for steady but moderating expansion, while Fed communications continue to shape rate-path projections that influence equity valuations. Corporate earnings trends and sector performance provide supporting context, yet volatility measures and Treasury yield movements highlight downside risks from potential policy shifts or geopolitical factors. With probabilities tightly bunched, upcoming data releases and central bank meetings remain key swing elements that could reprice the distribution before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
거래량
$28,608종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at end-2026 reflects a closely contested range centered on 7,000–8,000, with the top three bins each commanding 19–23.5% implied probability amid uncertainty over sustained earnings growth and monetary policy. Recent economic data releases, including inflation readings and labor market indicators, have reinforced expectations for steady but moderating expansion, while Fed communications continue to shape rate-path projections that influence equity valuations. Corporate earnings trends and sector performance provide supporting context, yet volatility measures and Treasury yield movements highlight downside risks from potential policy shifts or geopolitical factors. With probabilities tightly bunched, upcoming data releases and central bank meetings remain key swing elements that could reprice the distribution before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
거래량
$28,608종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at end-2026 reflects a closely contested range centered on 7,000–8,000, with the top three bins each commanding 19–23.5% implied probability amid uncertainty over sustained earnings growth and monetary policy. Recent economic data releases, including inflation readings and labor market indicators, have reinforced expectations for steady but moderating expansion, while Fed communications continue to shape rate-path projections that influence equity valuations. Corporate earnings trends and sector performance provide supporting context, yet volatility measures and Treasury yield movements highlight downside risks from potential policy shifts or geopolitical factors. With probabilities tightly bunched, upcoming data releases and central bank meetings remain key swing elements that could reprice the distribution before year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문