Polymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened uncertainty from sticky March CPI inflation (food index up 2.7% year-over-year) and Federal Reserve minutes signaling a steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds rate with just one cut projected amid resilient but cooling labor markets (unemployment at 4.3%). Current index levels near record highs of 7,020 underscore overbought conditions vulnerable to Middle East tensions, including recent US-Iran escalations pressuring oil prices and risk assets. Contrasting Wall Street consensus targets of $7,200 (JPMorgan) to $7,800 (Morgan Stanley), supported by 15-17% S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth forecasts, the fragmented odds highlight swing risks from Q1 earnings reports and the April FOMC meeting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트<$6,000 34%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 18%
$6,000-$6,500 15%
$18,714 거래량
$18,714 거래량
2026.12.31
<$6,000
34%
$6,000-$6,500
15%
$6,500-$7,000
18%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
10%
>$8,000
7%
<$6,000 34%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 18%
$6,000-$6,500 15%
$18,714 거래량
$18,714 거래량
2026.12.31
<$6,000
$11,556 거래량
34%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,333 거래량
15%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,597 거래량
18%
$7,000-$7,500
$892 거래량
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,570 거래량
10%
>$8,000
$1,767 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened uncertainty from sticky March CPI inflation (food index up 2.7% year-over-year) and Federal Reserve minutes signaling a steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds rate with just one cut projected amid resilient but cooling labor markets (unemployment at 4.3%). Current index levels near record highs of 7,020 underscore overbought conditions vulnerable to Middle East tensions, including recent US-Iran escalations pressuring oil prices and risk assets. Contrasting Wall Street consensus targets of $7,200 (JPMorgan) to $7,800 (Morgan Stanley), supported by 15-17% S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth forecasts, the fragmented odds highlight swing risks from Q1 earnings reports and the April FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
거래량
$18,714종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened uncertainty from sticky March CPI inflation (food index up 2.7% year-over-year) and Federal Reserve minutes signaling a steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds rate with just one cut projected amid resilient but cooling labor markets (unemployment at 4.3%). Current index levels near record highs of 7,020 underscore overbought conditions vulnerable to Middle East tensions, including recent US-Iran escalations pressuring oil prices and risk assets. Contrasting Wall Street consensus targets of $7,200 (JPMorgan) to $7,800 (Morgan Stanley), supported by 15-17% S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth forecasts, the fragmented odds highlight swing risks from Q1 earnings reports and the April FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
거래량
$18,714종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened uncertainty from sticky March CPI inflation (food index up 2.7% year-over-year) and Federal Reserve minutes signaling a steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds rate with just one cut projected amid resilient but cooling labor markets (unemployment at 4.3%). Current index levels near record highs of 7,020 underscore overbought conditions vulnerable to Middle East tensions, including recent US-Iran escalations pressuring oil prices and risk assets. Contrasting Wall Street consensus targets of $7,200 (JPMorgan) to $7,800 (Morgan Stanley), supported by 15-17% S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth forecasts, the fragmented odds highlight swing risks from Q1 earnings reports and the April FOMC meeting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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