Trader consensus prices a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 57.5% Yes, driven primarily by Justice Samuel Alito's brief March 20 hospitalization for dehydration—disclosed April 3 after occurring at a Federalist Society event—and President Trump's April 15 remarks affirming preparedness to nominate replacements for Alito, 76, or Clarence Thomas, 77, the court's eldest members. With no official retirement announcements, speculation centers on strategic timing before the June term end and November midterms, when Republican Senate control enables swift confirmation hearings to preserve the 6-3 conservative majority. Historical patterns of politically timed retirements and the justices' advanced ages underpin the closely contested odds, though liberal justices show no signs of departing.