Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion in July 2025 through reconciliation legislation, establishing a $41.1 trillion ceiling projected to accommodate borrowing through much of 2027 under current baselines. This followed reinstatement of the prior limit in January 2025 and aligns with Congress’s consistent pattern of increasing or suspending the ceiling—78 times since 1960—while Treasury has deployed extraordinary measures to prioritize debt service. The next projected exhaustion point falls in late 2026 or 2027, leaving multiple legislative sessions for adjustment. These structural safeguards underpin the 95.8 percent trader-implied probability against default. Prolonged partisan gridlock that blocks further increases before the X-date could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent indicates resolution well ahead of any breach.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2027년까지 미국 채무 불이행?
2027년까지 미국 채무 불이행?
예
$15,053 거래량
$15,053 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$15,053 거래량
$15,053 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion in July 2025 through reconciliation legislation, establishing a $41.1 trillion ceiling projected to accommodate borrowing through much of 2027 under current baselines. This followed reinstatement of the prior limit in January 2025 and aligns with Congress’s consistent pattern of increasing or suspending the ceiling—78 times since 1960—while Treasury has deployed extraordinary measures to prioritize debt service. The next projected exhaustion point falls in late 2026 or 2027, leaving multiple legislative sessions for adjustment. These structural safeguards underpin the 95.8 percent trader-implied probability against default. Prolonged partisan gridlock that blocks further increases before the X-date could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent indicates resolution well ahead of any breach.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
거래량
$15,053종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion in July 2025 through reconciliation legislation, establishing a $41.1 trillion ceiling projected to accommodate borrowing through much of 2027 under current baselines. This followed reinstatement of the prior limit in January 2025 and aligns with Congress’s consistent pattern of increasing or suspending the ceiling—78 times since 1960—while Treasury has deployed extraordinary measures to prioritize debt service. The next projected exhaustion point falls in late 2026 or 2027, leaving multiple legislative sessions for adjustment. These structural safeguards underpin the 95.8 percent trader-implied probability against default. Prolonged partisan gridlock that blocks further increases before the X-date could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent indicates resolution well ahead of any breach.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
거래량
$15,053종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion in July 2025 through reconciliation legislation, establishing a $41.1 trillion ceiling projected to accommodate borrowing through much of 2027 under current baselines. This followed reinstatement of the prior limit in January 2025 and aligns with Congress’s consistent pattern of increasing or suspending the ceiling—78 times since 1960—while Treasury has deployed extraordinary measures to prioritize debt service. The next projected exhaustion point falls in late 2026 or 2027, leaving multiple legislative sessions for adjustment. These structural safeguards underpin the 95.8 percent trader-implied probability against default. Prolonged partisan gridlock that blocks further increases before the X-date could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent indicates resolution well ahead of any breach.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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