Trader consensus reflects near-certain avoidance of a US debt default by 2027 at 95.5% implied probability for "No," anchored in Congress's unbroken history of raising the debt ceiling over 100 times amid fiscal brinkmanship, preserving the nation's perfect credit record. The recent partial government shutdown—the longest on record—over Homeland Security funding disputes tied to immigration enforcement ended in early April 2026 via a Republican congressional deal, demonstrating routine resolution of appropriations fights separate from debt limit pressures. Treasury and CRFB projections indicate the limit won't bind until sometime in 2027, providing ample window despite CBO-forecast deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually. Realistic upset scenarios include post-midterms gridlock in 2026 blocking a continuing resolution or reconciliation bill, or extraordinary measures exhaustion coinciding with shutdown demands.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2027년까지 미국 채무 불이행?
2027년까지 미국 채무 불이행?
예
$14,748 거래량
$14,748 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$14,748 거래량
$14,748 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus reflects near-certain avoidance of a US debt default by 2027 at 95.5% implied probability for "No," anchored in Congress's unbroken history of raising the debt ceiling over 100 times amid fiscal brinkmanship, preserving the nation's perfect credit record. The recent partial government shutdown—the longest on record—over Homeland Security funding disputes tied to immigration enforcement ended in early April 2026 via a Republican congressional deal, demonstrating routine resolution of appropriations fights separate from debt limit pressures. Treasury and CRFB projections indicate the limit won't bind until sometime in 2027, providing ample window despite CBO-forecast deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually. Realistic upset scenarios include post-midterms gridlock in 2026 blocking a continuing resolution or reconciliation bill, or extraordinary measures exhaustion coinciding with shutdown demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
거래량
$14,748종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus reflects near-certain avoidance of a US debt default by 2027 at 95.5% implied probability for "No," anchored in Congress's unbroken history of raising the debt ceiling over 100 times amid fiscal brinkmanship, preserving the nation's perfect credit record. The recent partial government shutdown—the longest on record—over Homeland Security funding disputes tied to immigration enforcement ended in early April 2026 via a Republican congressional deal, demonstrating routine resolution of appropriations fights separate from debt limit pressures. Treasury and CRFB projections indicate the limit won't bind until sometime in 2027, providing ample window despite CBO-forecast deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually. Realistic upset scenarios include post-midterms gridlock in 2026 blocking a continuing resolution or reconciliation bill, or extraordinary measures exhaustion coinciding with shutdown demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
거래량
$14,748종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certain avoidance of a US debt default by 2027 at 95.5% implied probability for "No," anchored in Congress's unbroken history of raising the debt ceiling over 100 times amid fiscal brinkmanship, preserving the nation's perfect credit record. The recent partial government shutdown—the longest on record—over Homeland Security funding disputes tied to immigration enforcement ended in early April 2026 via a Republican congressional deal, demonstrating routine resolution of appropriations fights separate from debt limit pressures. Treasury and CRFB projections indicate the limit won't bind until sometime in 2027, providing ample window despite CBO-forecast deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually. Realistic upset scenarios include post-midterms gridlock in 2026 blocking a continuing resolution or reconciliation bill, or extraordinary measures exhaustion coinciding with shutdown demands.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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