Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split, with "None in 2026" at 39.5% slightly ahead of Anthropic at 38.5%, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at around 1503 Elo—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro—yet falling short of the 1550 threshold amid signs of benchmark saturation. Anthropic's edge stems from its rapid iteration and "thinking" mode enhancements boosting reasoning capabilities, while OpenAI and Google trail due to slower releases despite strong specialized benchmarks like GPT-5.4's 95% on USAMO 2026. Key differentiators include compute scale, post-training optimizations, and open-weight challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 gaining in coding sub-leaderboards; watch for Q2 announcements on Claude 5, GPT-6, or Gemini 4 to potentially break the deadlock before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트None in 2026 40%
Anthropic 39%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
$31,414 거래량
$31,414 거래량
2026.12.31
None in 2026
40%
Anthropic
39%
OpenAI
12%
10%
DeepSeek
2%
xAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 40%
Anthropic 39%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
$31,414 거래량
$31,414 거래량
2026.12.31
None in 2026
$5,082 거래량
40%
Anthropic
$3,500 거래량
39%
OpenAI
$5,104 거래량
12%
$5,030 거래량
10%
DeepSeek
$2,468 거래량
2%
xAI
$3,961 거래량
1%
Alibaba
$2,122 거래량
1%
Z.ai
$2,060 거래량
1%
Mistral
$2,086 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split, with "None in 2026" at 39.5% slightly ahead of Anthropic at 38.5%, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at around 1503 Elo—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro—yet falling short of the 1550 threshold amid signs of benchmark saturation. Anthropic's edge stems from its rapid iteration and "thinking" mode enhancements boosting reasoning capabilities, while OpenAI and Google trail due to slower releases despite strong specialized benchmarks like GPT-5.4's 95% on USAMO 2026. Key differentiators include compute scale, post-training optimizations, and open-weight challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 gaining in coding sub-leaderboards; watch for Q2 announcements on Claude 5, GPT-6, or Gemini 4 to potentially break the deadlock before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
마켓 개설일: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
거래량
$31,414종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split, with "None in 2026" at 39.5% slightly ahead of Anthropic at 38.5%, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at around 1503 Elo—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro—yet falling short of the 1550 threshold amid signs of benchmark saturation. Anthropic's edge stems from its rapid iteration and "thinking" mode enhancements boosting reasoning capabilities, while OpenAI and Google trail due to slower releases despite strong specialized benchmarks like GPT-5.4's 95% on USAMO 2026. Key differentiators include compute scale, post-training optimizations, and open-weight challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 gaining in coding sub-leaderboards; watch for Q2 announcements on Claude 5, GPT-6, or Gemini 4 to potentially break the deadlock before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
거래량
$31,414종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split, with "None in 2026" at 39.5% slightly ahead of Anthropic at 38.5%, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at around 1503 Elo—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro—yet falling short of the 1550 threshold amid signs of benchmark saturation. Anthropic's edge stems from its rapid iteration and "thinking" mode enhancements boosting reasoning capabilities, while OpenAI and Google trail due to slower releases despite strong specialized benchmarks like GPT-5.4's 95% on USAMO 2026. Key differentiators include compute scale, post-training optimizations, and open-weight challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 gaining in coding sub-leaderboards; watch for Q2 announcements on Claude 5, GPT-6, or Gemini 4 to potentially break the deadlock before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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